Why Myanmar’s military upended the new democracy’s status quo
SINGAPORE — Myanmar’s military controls vast business interests in mining, telecommunications, textiles, hotels and even beer. It faces no civilian oversight and can block changes to the country’s Constitution. When it had to respond to international condemnation for its brutal repression of ethnic minorities, it trotted out members of its compliant civilian government to absorb the blame.
With such political and economic power, there seemed little for the military, known as the Tatmadaw, to complain about except for its lack of success at the ballot box, which it groundlessly blamed on voter fraud after elections in November.
So even close observers were surprised and puzzled by army leaders’ decision to stage a coup Monday, when military authorities detained prominent political figures such as Aung San Suu Kyi in earlymorning raids and declared one year of emergency rule. Now, the Tatmadaw is left with the sobering task of governing — a role it didn’t necessarily excel in during 49 years of chaotic military dictatorship that ended in 2011.
It faces a public health emergency in the COVID-19 pandemic, which has also triggered an economic crisis reminiscent of the one that precipitated a deadly popular uprising in 1988. Millions have been pushed into poverty over the last year, desperate enough for food to hunt rats and snakes in open sewers.
The nominal gains achieved by assuming total control could quickly be outweighed by sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and others that could disrupt Myanmar’s access to imports and, more important, the U.S. dollar.
Foreign companies that entered joint ventures with the Tatmadaw’s conglomerates are likely to come under growing pressure to reconsider their investments. Already, Japanese brewer Kirin is facing scrutiny over its presence in Myanmar, where it dominates the beer market in a partnership with the military-owned Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd.
While no one outside the Tatmadaw knows for certain why it suddenly upended its comfortable status quo, some analysts say egos and political bickering inside Myanmar’s most powerful institution could be to blame.
"The military are not primarily motivated by financial concerns,” said Richard Horsey, a Myanmar-based analyst. “They never really have been. This is about pride, politics and personal ambition. More broadly, they have felt for some time that the civilian government was not giving them and their concerns due weight and respect, and was not following the constitutional rules.”
That includes Suu Kyi’s decision to circumvent a constitutional law barring her from the presidency by creating a higher position for herself in 2016, that of “state counselor.”