Lodi News-Sentinel

Economy is booming, but are Americans ready for next recession?

- By James Rufus Koren

Need a few thousand bucks? Get a loan fast online. Need a mortgage? Apply for one on your phone. Have questions for your bank? Chat with a robot instead of a teller.

The way Americans interact with the financial system has changed dramatical­ly over the last 10 years. And yet, for all the technologi­cal innovation, Americans’ fundamenta­l relationsh­ip with the institutio­ns that help them pay for homes, cars and other necessitie­s remains largely unchanged.

A decade after the financial crisis, many households are no more prepared for an economic downturn today than they were then. And though there’s less risky lending in some areas, new worries have emerged.

Student and auto debt have soared, new types of loans backed by untested technology have hit the market and the average American has benefited little from the roaring stock and housing markets.

“There are more people on the margins than there were in 2008,” said Mehrsa Baradaran, an associate dean at the University of Georgia School of Law who has written extensivel­y about wealth inequality and the financial system. “More people have been knocked out of the secure middle class. I think the next crisis will hurt as much if not more.”

One worrisome sign is that, when a crisis or recession comes — and experts agree it’s a question of when, not if — Americans will probably be in just as much debt as they were in 2008, if not more.

In the third quarter of 2008, U.S. household debt peaked at $12.7 trillion. After falling for a few years, debt started to rise again. Today, that figure stands at $13.3 trillion.

The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation or population growth, but they neverthele­ss show that Americans, after cutting back, are borrowing again.

And more than ever, they’re borrowing in the form of student loans as the cost of higher education has far outpaced inflation.

Since mid-2008, mortgage, home equity and credit card debt have shrunk while the amount of student debt has more than doubled. The increase in student debt accounts for nearly all of the increase in overall household debt.

Despite the growth, investors aren’t worried about student loans taking down the financial system. Bankruptcy laws make it nearly impossible to shed student loans, and the federal government, rather than banks or private investors, owns most of it.

Still, investors are concerned that high monthly payments could have long-term effects on the economy, potentiall­y stunting its growth.

Saddled by student debt and graduating into an economy in which jobs have returned but wages have been stagnant, many younger Americans haven’t been able to afford to save for down payments and buy homes, forcing them to rent. That has pushed up rental prices, making it even harder to save, said Andrew Hsu, a portfolio manager at downtown Los Angeles investment firm DoubleLine Capital.

“It creates this cycle where, in this race of trying to buy a home, they can’t catch up,” he said.

What’s more, those would-be buyers have now missed out on years of a booming housing market. Even if they could buy now, they might be buying near the top of the market and won’t benefit from the last few years of swift price appreciati­on.

“People who didn’t have the funds to buy, they missed out on a massive rally,” Hsu said.

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