As vaccine testing ramps up, scientists offering cautions
People on six continents already are getting jabs in the arm as the race for a COVID-19 vaccine enters a defining summer, with even bigger studies poised to prove if any shot really works — and maybe offer a reality check.
Already British and Chinese researchers are chasing the coronavirus beyond their borders, testing potential vaccines in Brazil and the United Arab Emirates because there are too few new infections at home to get clear answers.
The U.S. is set to open the largest trials: 30,000 people to test a government-created shot starting in July, followed about a month later with another 30,000 expected to test a British one.
Those probably will be divided among Americans and volunteers in other countries such as Brazil or South Africa, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said.
While he is optimistic, “we’ve been burned before,” Fauci cautioned.
Multiple successes, in multiple parts of the world, are vital.
“This isn’t a race of who gets there first. This is, get as many approved, safe and effective vaccines as you possibly can,” Fauci said.
Vaccine experts say it’s time to set public expectations. Many scientists don’t expect a coronavirus vaccine to be nearly as protective as the measles shot.
If the best COVID-19 vaccine is only 50 percent effective, “that’s still to me a great vaccine,” said Dr. Drew
Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania.
“We need to start having this conversation now,” so people won’t be surprised, he added.
Even if a shot pans out — and it’s one that your country stockpiled — only some high-risk people, such as essential workers, go to the front of a very long line.
“Will you and I get vaccinated this year? No way,” Duke University health economist David Ridley said.
Vaccines train the body to recognize and fend off an invading germ. About 15 COVID-19 vaccines are in various stages of human studies worldwide.
And while there is no guarantee any will pan out, moving three different kinds into final testing offers better odds — especially because scientists don’t yet know just how strong an immune reaction the shots must spark to protect.
Measuring that with the first proven vaccine will “really help us understand for all the other vaccines in development, do they also have a chance?” Oxford University lead researcher Sarah Gilbert said.
Only China is pushing out “inactivated” vaccines, made by growing the new coronavirus and killing it. Vaccines by Sinovac Biotech and Sinopharm use that old-fashioned technology, which requires high-security labs to produce but is dependable, the way polio shots and some flu vaccines are made.
Most other vaccines in the pipeline target not the whole germ but a key piece: the “spike” protein that studs the surface of the coronavirus and helps it invade human cells.