Thousands of jobs at risk with social distancing.
Losses could come from ‘social distancing’ in battle against coronavirus
Social distancing from the coronavirus outbreak may cost Houston thousands of jobs over the next few months if events, campuses and businesses continue to shut down.
Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, said that in the short run, “social distancing,” or the cultural isolation occurring in order to prevent exposure to the new coronavirus, could lead to short-term losses of as many as 15,000 jobs.
Social distancing — when everyone is instructed to work from home, people stop going to restaurants, major events are canceled (such as Houston’s rodeo) and university campuses are shut down — is an extremely unusual circumstance, he said. It’s difficult to measure the economic impact.
Gilmer, however, said Houston has one indicator that shows what happens when the economy shuts down temporarily: hurricanes.
“What happens if we send everyone home?” Gilmer said. “We know if we have a hurricane what it does to employment.”
The region lost about 15,000 jobs in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, he said. In a worst-case scenario of emergency social distancing, to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the temporary job losses from sending people home could be of a similar magnitude, he said. Workers in hotels and
restaurants may be temporarily laid off, employees could take time off to care for ill family members and jobs from large events will essentially disappear.
Still, the estimate is unlikely to capture the full economic impact of COVID-19, as it doesn’t account for oil prices tanking, consumers staying home instead of shopping, and businesses cutting back on investment because of an uncertain future.
“Unlike the one-time hurricane figure, (job losses) could roll over from month to month,” Gilmer said. “Hurricanes are not an exact analogy but maybe give us an idea of what happens to payrolls in the wake of a major ongoing disruption.”
A flood of temporary closures were announced
“We know if we have a hurricane what it does to employment.”
Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business
Thursday — from local school districts to universities to concert halls to courts.
Earlier this week, Mayor Sylvester Turner signed an emergency health declaration that requires the cancellation of all events produced, co-sponsored or permitted by the city of Houston, ending the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo 11 days early. That cancellation alone is likely to cost the economy millions.