Blaming all our economic problems on the weather
Let’s blame it all on the weather.
Retail sales were down in the fourth quarter of 2015 due to warm weather, and then down again the first quarter because it was too cold. The problem has nothing to do with the retail industry.
The United States is beginning the year with a massive glut of natural gas because the El Niño weather pattern provided us the warmest winter on record. In fact, a warm weather across the globe meant that very little heating fuel was needed anywhere, and as a result liquefied natural gas prices are down 42 percent year over year in Asia, according to data analysis firm Platt’s.
The warm weather has also hurt the prices for coal, heating oil and any other source of energy used for heating or electricity generation. Energy companies are not overproducing, the weather is the problem.
The same warming of the Pacific Ocean is also responsible for the downpours that have flooded Houston over the last two weeks. Between the physical damage and lost economic activity, the toll will likely cost the city billions. Development is not the problem, it’s those darned clouds.
The weather is even hurting wind energy generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Wind speeds are down in the western half of the United States, where most of the turbines are located. No one made the mistake of assuming that every year would be the same.
The good news is that El Niño’s don’t last forever. The ocean water cools and “the little boy” is followed by the little girl, La Niña. And La Niña really is the opposite, causing droughts in Texas and increasing hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
If it’s not one thing, it’s another, which is why it is so frustrating to hear CEOs and business owners blame poor performance on the weather. Managers are supposed to anticipate and mitigate problems, not blame the weather.
Yet that’s exactly what we can expect, because theses weather patterns are becoming more powerful and more destructive due to climate change, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And that’s not based on modeling, but on actual observations.
Taking responsibility for a warming planet or failing to recognize changing market conditions requires people to take responsibility for their actions, and that’s just too much to ask. So let’s “blame it on the rain, or the stars that shine at night.” But whatever we do, let’s not put the blame on us. (With apologies to songwriter Eric Kaz.)