Betting advice for USA Today 301 at New Hampshire on Sunday
Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell have given Toyota a sweep of NASCAR wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway over the last two years and unsurprisingly, they’re atop the odds board with the USA Today 301 looming Sunday.
Will one of the two make it three in a row for Joe Gibbs Racing?
There’s certainly evidence to both support and resist that sentiment. There’s always Kyle Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports brethren to consider and, oh yeah, a heck of a recent run by Ford.
So, if you’re striding to the betting window this week to place a NASCAR wager, where should you look?
No worries, we’ve got you covered. Here’s the current odds board and our picks, best bets and even a little DFS lineup advice for New Hampshire.
NASCAR odds for New Hampshire Motor Speedway
(Odds according to Hard Rock Bet)
● +475: Christopher Bell
● +500: Martin Truex Jr.
● +550: Denny Hamlin
● +700: Ryan Blaney
● +750: Kyle Larson
● +900: Joey Logano
● +1400: William Byron
● +1500: Chase Elliott
● +1600: Brad Keselowski
● +2000: Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick
● +3000: Josh Berry, Ross Chastain
● +4000: Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher
● +5000: Bubba Wallace
● +6000: Alex Bowman
● +10000: Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe
● +15000: Michael McDowell, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric
● +20000: Justin Haley
● +25000: Carson Hocevar, Austin Dillon, Ryan Preece, Todd Gilliland
● +50000: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones
● +100000: Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Daniel Hemric, Harrison Burton
● +250000: Ty Dillon, Kaz Grala
Best bet for USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Ryan: I’m heading over to the car lot where Ford is +220 to be the winning manufacturer Sunday. While Toyota (particularly Truex Jr. and Bell) have been great here recently, the blue ovals ride in having won four of the last six events counting the All Star Race. That includes Logano winning at North Wilkesboro, Cindric at Gateway and Blaney at Iowa last week, both of which were smaller tracks with less banking, much like the Magic Mile. At better than 2-to-1 odds, this is a risk worth taking.
Ken: This isn’t the sexiest bet out there, but give me Daniel Suarez at +550. For a top 10! Yeah, yeah, last week’s ninth-place at Iowa was his first top 10 since Valentine’s Day, but listen, Daniel became an official American citizen this past week, and if that ain’t worth additional horsepower, Yankee Doodle wasn’t a dandy.
Ross Chastain and Justin Haley make intriguing Top 10 bets
Ryan: Counting the All Star Race, Chastain has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts. The other two? 12th at Gateway and 11th at Iowa. Chances are, he’s going to be hovering around that magical 10th spot on Sunday, yet he’s plus odds at +140 to finish on the right side of it. There’s good value here.
Ken: Oops, maybe I should’ve looked ahead before giving away my favorite top 10. But I can have two. I want to say Kyle Busch at +190, because in normal times he runs top 10 with one eye closed. Also, he’s driving kinda carefree, if you can do that while also being frustrated. But I don’t trust his rotten run of luck, and since I like to gamble, I’ll take Justin Haley at +400.
Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman lead top-five wagers
Ryan: Elliott, NASCAR’s new model of consistency, is 7 for his last 12 in terms of top-five finishes. That includes a third-place at Iowa last week, a track that’s not all that different from this one. At +250, this one is a no-brainer.
Ken: Bowman has piled up a lot of top-10s without taking too many top fives. Hard to do if you ask me. At +1000, why not? Settle into seventh and wait on two ahead of you to crash near the end. What a game plan!
We’re passing on Martin Truex Jr. at New Hampshire. Really!
Ryan: Truex Jr. has led 350 laps more than anyone else here in the last three events, which likely explains why he’s second on the board. I just don’t see it. He had nothing in finishing 27th last week and he’ll be fielding more questions about retirement from here until November after making his announcement last week. I’m out.
Ken: Can I take Kaz Grala? No? OK, this might be against the rules here, but I’m gonna go ahead and agree with Ryan. Perhaps Truex will get his butt in gear now that he’s not sitting on his retirement news. But I doubt it.
Alright, who ya got?
Ryan: It’s hard not to like Bell, the favorite, who has been lightning fast at these kinds of tracks all year. But to mix it up, I’ll go Brad Keselowski all the way down there at 16-to-1. Bad Brad has the best average finish of any active driver (fifth) over the last three years here and he has two career victories in Loudon.
Ken: Give me Chase Elliott at +1500, 15-to-1. This is hardly scientific, but I’m thinking Chase woke up this past Monday and saw that he’s now leading the points standings, and basically done it by not stinking things up anywhere this year. Now, he reckons, since he’s leading the points, he might as well start acting like it.
NASCAR DFS lineup advice
● Christopher Bell ($11,000): He’s the favorite for a reason with a win and a runner-up finish in the last three years here. There’s enough value below to afford him, so why not?
● Joey Logano ($9,800): Anyone else noticing the 22 team getting a little closer every race? Each of his Penske teammates have won in the last three weeks and Logano is now slouch in New Hampshire where he finished second just last year. He’s going to get one soon, it may just be Sunday.
● Ross Chastain ($8,500): He’s seemingly finishing between fifth and 12th every week. At this price, that would be just fine.
● Bubba Wallace ($7,500): It may surprise you, but Wallace is riding backto-back top-10 finishes at New Hampshire after coming home eighth last year and third in 2022.
● Daniel Suarez ($6,900): Finished ninth here in 2022 and he was rock solid at Iowa last week.
● Carson Hocevar ($6,300): Death, taxes and Hocevar exceeding expectations. He registered his seventh top-15 finish at Iowa last week, but it’s that season-best, eighth-place showing at Gateway a few weeks ago that gives us the confidence to put him in here.