Reports: DeWine positioned well despite GOP opposition

Unless the dynamics of the race change dramatically, new campaign numbers on Friday suggest that Gov. Mike DeWine, despite passionate opposition from a segment within his own party, is on a comfortable path to secure the Republican nomination next year and, given the state’s larger political trends, perhaps even re-election.

DeWine reported raising more than $3 million in the most recent period — the most on record for the most recent reporting period, which covers the first half of 2021 — contributing to the $6.5 million in his campaign bank account. While that’s a major part of this story, it’s not surprising that DeWine would show strong fundraising numbers. He has a deep network of donors, the benefits of incumbency plus a 40-plusyear political career. He’s also independently wealthy, thanks to family business interests, so would be able and willing to self-fund his campaign if needed.

“The significant grassroots backing that the campaign has received is proof that Ohioans support Governor DeWine’s leadership,” Campaign Manager Brenton Temple said in a statement. “Our campaign is in a strong position heading into next November. We appreciate the groundswell of support from all over Ohio.”

But more revealing from Friday’s numbers is the weak showing from Jim Renacci, a Republican former congressman from Wadsworth who is DeWine’s most prominent challenger. Renacci reported raising just less than $22,000, nowhere near the seven-figure numbers that viable candidates, including the race’s underdog Democratic candidates, would be expected to raise.

While Renacci just entered the race in June and has only been raising money for a few weeks, he’s a former congressman who’s previously run statewide, and he’s spent nearly two years laying the groundwork to run statewide again via a political nonprofit he formed. All those factors should have set the stage for stronger fundraising. The number will raise questions about his viability as a candidate. For comparison, Joe Blystone, a cattle rancher from Central Ohio who’s developed a niche, social media-driven following, reported raising $258,800.

Renacci, an entrepreneur with diverse business interests, reported loaning his campaign $1 million, giving him just more than $1 million in the bank. But Renacci also has a track record of not spending his own money after loaning it to his campaign — his losing U.S. Senate Campaign in 2018 is a prime example — and unless he’s willing to spend something like $5 million of his own money or more, he will struggle to compete with DeWine unless he manages to attract more outside donors.

For comparison, the two main Democratic governor candidates during the same time period — Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley — said they raised $1.64 million and $1.07 million, respectively. Each candidate reported having more than $1.3 million in cash on hand, with a slight edge to Whaley. Cranley’s numbers don’t include $15,000 he recently raised through his federal leadership PAC — an unusual thing for a state candidate to have — which he’s partially spent on paying Jared Kamrass, his top campaign aide.

In an interview, Renacci said his low fundraising reflects that his campaign is still getting off the ground. He said he’d planned on announcing in July, which would have given him more time to organize before reporting campaign finance numbers, but he jumped in the race in June because “the timing was right.”

There’s a risk for Davidson if he got in the race. With Renacci already in, along Blystone, another candidate could further split the anti-DeWine vote.

But Davidson said a crowded field wouldn’t necessarily discourage him from entering.

“So far, I haven’t seen anyone else have traction in the race, so that hasn’t been a substantial factor,” he said.

Despite his issues with the GOP’s base, DeWine remains a formidable, wellknown candidate with deep financial backing. He has a conservative, anti-abortion record to run on, and a story to tell about his leadership during the coronavirus pandemic, including his work with the Trump administration, that could appeal to more mainstream Republican voters. And he likely will have an overwhelming financial advantage against any opponent, none of whom at this point are extremely well known.

So even if Davidson gets in with prominent backing and even if he clears the field — which seems unlikely, since Renacci has spent years planning to run for governor — he still would face an uphill battle against DeWine. The same goes for Renacci, if he’s able to fund a viable campaign.

In either scenario, that Republican primary election could end up being competitive. But much would have to change in order to get there.