‘The numbers are slowly going down’
Expert encouraged by declining trend in number of coronavirus cases in Chester County
EAST MARLBOROUGH » For the first time in months, there’s a bit of good news concerning the pandemic in Chester and Delaware counties.
The positive case count in Chester County was 1,264 last week, compared to 1,479 two weeks ago. The positivity rate per 100,000 people declined from 336 four weeks ago to 242 last week.
Delaware County experienced a similar trend. The positive case count last week in Delaware County stood at 1,528, compared to 2,111 four weeks ago.
And average daily hospitalizations are down in Chester County, from 166 two weeks ago to 117 last week. There are also fewer people on ventilators, and ICU admissions have decreased from 26 two weeks ago to 21 last week in Chester County.
“It’s not good, but we are beginning to see a decline in daily cases,” said Dr. Salwa E. Sulieman, a pediatric infectious disease specialist affiliated with several hospitals in the region. “It’s been a pretty consistent decline over past few weeks. I am cautiously optimistic about that.”
Statewide percent positivity for the week of Dec. 25-31 stood at 15 percent. In Chester County, it’s at 11.4 percent, a slight decline over the past few weeks. In Delaware County, it’s 12.7 percent.
In nursing and personal care homes in Pennsylvania, there are 54,465 resident cases of COVID-19, and 9,827 cases among employees, for a total of 64,292 at 1,479 distinct facilities in all 67 counties. Out of our total deaths,
9,023 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities.
To date, 517 people have died of coronavirus in Chester County, and 1,000 in Delaware County.
In Chester County, Sulieman said the hot spots are currently the Coatesville and Downingtown school districts.
“Chester County and Delaware County took a mild decrease in the past week
in all of the metrics we have been looking at as far as new cases,” Sulieman said. “That is actually two weeks in a row that we have seen consistent decreases. The numbers are slowly going down.”
And the really good news, Sulieman said, is that influenza has been relatively rare in both Chester and Delaware counties.
“I’m feeling very excited about the fact that we may not have a huge influx of in
fluenza at same time we are dealing with COVID-19,” she said. “It’s probably because of the mitigation strategies happening across the country.”
Sulieman said that even though vaccines are being administered – at a much slower rate than first anticipated — residents should not expect to see any real changes for several months. In Pennsylvania so far, 156,000 vaccine doses have
been administered out of an allocation of 490,000. And 365 doses were shipped this week.
“The mitigation strategies we have been doing for months and months and months are going to be incredibly important, and I wouldn’t change my lifestyle a single bit,” she said. “We won’t see herd immunity and we won’t see the effects of the vaccine for a long time. Just because the vaccine is here, it will help, but it won’t take it all away.”
But for the coming weeks, Sulieman said she is expressing “cautious optimism.”
“I think in general over the next three or four weeks, the model, particularly for Chester County, would predict a plateau down,” she said. “It’s not gone by any means, but it’s not a huge increase from day to day. And that is encouraging.”