ANOTHER VIEW
The 2016 national elections gave the Republican Party control of the White House and both houses of Congress, but the GOP’s long-term hold on the electorate is far from certain. Control of Congress and the White House shifts back and forth as the electorate gets frustrated with the lack of progress on issues important to them. The current political environment includes many newly energized citizens who want their voices heard. Demographics suggest that the base of support that elevated President Trump to his improbable win is shrinking and that Republicans need to build out their base of support in areas like the Philadelphia region, as GOP leaders themselves have acknowledged. The GOP needs to begin to appeal to the growing influence of the millennial voters who are now finding their voices in the national political scene. Millennials are the majority of the electorate and this majority will grow as the baby boomer generation becomes smaller each year.
The Republican Party has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to cement a base of support for the foreseeable future. The opportunity lies in taking action on climate change within the next two years. The University of Texas recently reported that 91 percent of millennials think climate change is occurring. A majority of millennials also support a carbon tax and factor low carbon alternatives into decision making for major purchases such as transportation and energy.
Several prominent leaders (George Shultz, James Baker, and Henry Paulson) in the Republican Party recently published “A Conservative Climate Solution,” which proposes a carbon tax and dividend. This plan, which is also supported by the non-partisan Citizens Climate Lobby, would implement a rising price on carbon that would be returned to the citizens in a monthly dividend. The plan could be combined with rolling back Obama era regulatory initiatives like the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. The opportunity for a conservative solution to solve one of the most pressing issues of our time, while at the same time reducing regulations, is too good to pass up.
The Paris Agreement, signed by 197 nations, effectively the entire world, calls on an aggressive reduction in carbon emissions.This agreement has already been ratified by 129 nations, including the United States. Even if the United States were to somehow back out of this agreement, as President Trump pledged during his election campaign, the rest of the planet will be moving toward carbon reductions and this will undoubtedly be accomplished through some kind of price on carbon. Those countries that refuse to price carbon will have their goods and services taxed at the border, effectively forcing carbon pricing globally in order to compete.
Twenty-four members of Congress have joined a Climate Solutions Caucus that is focused on finding economically viable solutions to climate change. The caucus is made up of equal parts Democrats and Republicans. This group is growing and includes four members from the state of Pennsylvania (Reps. Meehan, Costello, Fitzpatrick and Boyle). There appears to be a small but growing support base in Congress to work together on a climate solution.
Republicans have a choice to make on where it wants to be in the future of American politics. They can choose to protect the status quo and see how long they can hang on to power with a shrinking base, or they can look toward the future by solving one of humanity’s most challenging problems. In the end, humans will step up and address the climate challenge through pricing carbon. A smart strategy for the Republican Party would be to lead on this now while they can put in place a conservative plan, and at the same time cement a base of support for future of the party.