ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, JERSEY FRESH

FIRST RACE

CHOCLATE BODIE is out of a dam who won her own debut, as a 2-year-old, and she also went on to win a stakes race that year; she’s produced seven winners, including turf stakes winner Blue Bahia and the stakes-placed Chocolate Wildcat and Christiesborntorun, and this horse seems to land in a very good spot for his debut. JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT is the one to beat amongst those with racing experience, as his Beyers are best in this field; he has had his chances, and he looms a relatively short price, but he certainly would be no surprise. MOJAC KAT is widest but he has speed and will take them as far as he can on the front end; he has been known to stop, even at shorter distances, but this is the lowest level he’s been at yet.

SECOND RACE

JERSEY FRESH stretches out in his second start off the layoff, and while he has done some of his best work in sprints — his lone career win came in a six-furlong race — his route Beyers give him a solid shot against this group, including the 69 he posted over this track last year; will be looking to come from off the pace but should get at least an honest early tempo. KORCZAK is one of those runners who can be expected to be on or near the lead from the start; held well enough last time after he prompted the pace from the start. WENDIGO was an easy winner against maiden claimers in his latest; Beyer a little light but he fits the projected race flow nicely.

THIRD RACE

BLANK PAIGE is in for a tag for her first start off the layoff but she’s hardly dropping to the bottom levels, and her trainer, Danny Lopez, has won these types of races at a high rate over the past couple of decades; obviously the one to beat on the strength of her back Beyers, which are the best figures in the field. CRAZY DAISY was caught up in a duel in a turf route last time out but that’s not her best game; back sprinting on the main track, and trainer Miguel Penaloza has solid stats with horses making this surface switch, albeit from a small sample. ACHIEVING GLORY faded after

setting the pace in a route but that was her first test around two turns; back to a sprint, and her last such try was in the paceless Spruce Fir, which marked her first start in over eight months.

FOURTH RACE

INFINITY SKY faded despite a loose lead in her first start off the layoff two back, and she gave way late last time despite landing in a race that wasn’t loaded with speed, but she improved in that last start in terms of Beyers, and she may be in line for another improved effort today in her third start back; could be the controlling speed in this claimer, which is a little light on pace. BEATUBYACHUBINOSE is the one to beat as she makes her first start off the claim after running 2nd as the favorite there; logical enough, though she did fail despite a very good set up there, running 2nd for the 10th time, vs. five career 1st-place finishes. CROWN OF JOY hasn’t had a lot of luck in terms of race flow and pace this year, and she doesn’t seem to get any favors in this one in that regard, either, but given some help up front perhaps she can make an impact in the lane.

FIFTH RACE

Despite being no threat to the runaway winner, WICKED JANE was game for the place in her debut run, and though she was off the board in her latest she was a victim of race flow, as the race was controlled by the pacesetters and there was little speed in that sprint to begin with; a slow start cost her position there but with a clean getaway she stands to improve greatly today off that running line. ODDSONDUSTYMILLER comes out of the same race, and she wasn’t far off the top pick in that race, despite a wide post; turned in a solid work in the interim. MOON UNIT ZAPPER has to deal with the rail, which is not an ideal post for an inexperienced runner, but she has some works that hint at some speed and she lures Bravo for this; first starter from the dam, who was winless in three starts.

SIXTH RACE

TARAFIRMA proved no threat in her first try off the layoff but trainer Kathleen DeMasi excels with horses making their second starts off a break (24%, $2.65), and that bodes well for this mare’s chances today; also worth noting that while she was off the board last time she was against a possible bias, as speed held very well on the turf course on July 19th, and she was off the pace behind the gate-to-wire winner. LA PURISSIMA comes out of the same race and she has license to improve as she, too, was making her first start following a freshening; she was caught wide on the turn after breaking from post eight but she can be expected to be closer to the early pace today. STREET APPEAL is another with proven speed; makes her third start off the layoff following a career-best figure and a regression in her latest, and “bounce” theorists will be looking for a step forward from her today.