Data plentiful in foreign lands

Q. I have been told that you tried to apply your speed figures to Australian racing but it did not work out. I’m stunned at the lack of info available in Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian races. You’d expect that they’d be more advanced in handicapping than the U.S. Do the players there look at racing as pure luck? Why did your attempt in Australia fail?

–Jason Bergstrom, San Diego

A. The past performances that U.S. players see for international races probably gave you a false impression of racing in Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan. In each of these countries there are innumerable publications and websites offering a vast amount of racing data. Much of the betting public takes handicapping very seriously.

On visits to the tracks in Hong Kong, I have always been struck by the quietness of the big crowds. Everyone is carrying at least one racing publication; many are wearing earphones to listen to radio commentary on the races. The fans there go about the business of gambling in deadly earnest.

I wrote about my 1991 Australia adventure in “Beyer on Speed.” After developing speed figures for the country, I lived in Sydney for three months and played the horses intensely. The figures enabled me to break even (actually, I won $500 – before expenses) but they certainly didn’t give me an edge. If a horse with a superior figure went off at 10-1, the odds were almost always right and the figs were wrong.

I had difficulty adapting to a country where all the races were run on grass, but the main fact of life in Australia (then and now) is that the wagering competition is so tough. Tote odds usually fell in line with the prices posted by on-course bookmakers, and bookies couldn’t stay in business without being very smart and well informed. I knew one of savviest gamblers in Australia, and even he could only hope to grind out a narrow edge versus the bookmakers. If he rated a horse as a 2-1 chance, and he was able to get 5-2 on his wager, he was ecstatic.

I don’t know if there are any places left on Earth where a studious handicapper can find a significant edge, but I do know that Australia isn’t the place to look.

DRF.com offers free past performances for Australian (https://www.drf.com/news/freeinternational-racing-past-performancesand-analysis) and Hong Kong (https://www. drf.com/hk) racing.