ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MAKINGCENTS

FIRST RACE

DUTCHMEN FOREVER just missed going seveneighths when dropping to this price off a twomonth layoff Dec. 30. This is his first try beyond that distance, and the son of Mineshaft is bred to go long, top and bottom. IMPLIED VOLATILITY ran hot and cold in his two one-mile races on the main track. Leading rider Lezcano is 2 for 8 at the meet for trainer Rudy Rod. KID CHOCOLATE took the long way home when third behind the top pick while switching from turf to a sloppy track Dec. 30.

SECOND RACE

SADIE LADY had a troubled break before finishing 10 lengths in arrears last time in a key secondlevel optional claimer for state-breds. Her hot trainer has excelled when using Franco, and she should get back on track in this easier $35K conditioned claimer. CAPE COD DIVA dominated $25K NW2 opposition in her first dirt start Dec. 20, and has the highest last-out Beyer in the field by a wide margin. DIRTY BIRD is dropping from a $50K starter to the level at which she was a well-beaten third when going a mile in the mud in her penultimate race.

THIRD RACE

WALKOFF is plunging in value for his first outing since a wide fourth for $75K at Saratoga, and could be taking a big edge. The well-bred Repole Stable runner has been working regularly at Palm Beach Downs since early December. He can fire while fresh as evidenced by his victorious debut. CREATIVE STYLE is descending from first-level allowance company to a logical spot in this $35K NW3 seller. HIZAAM never fired in a recent $50K starter in his debut for Rice, who’s won at a 21% clip second-time off the claim over the past five years ($1.36 ROI).

FOURTH RACE

FOREVER WICKED improved significantly in his last two races, including a dominant maiden victory three weeks ago, since bottoming out Nov.

7. The closer could double up if he stays on the zone. MICROSCOPE has won two sloppy sprints in a row from off the pace heading into this event, and is bred to handle the stretchout to a mile. His stablemate, CHOWDA, figures to flash some early foot along the inside, as he drops from a stakes for his first try over a mile.

FIFTH RACE

MAKINGCENTS made a three-wide bid into contention on the turn en route to finishing third before galloping out strongly in her six-furlong opener. She has a bit more ground to work with in this 6 1/2-furlong maiden special, and her trainer has a 16% strike rate with maiden second-timers going back five years ($1.66 ROI). GIRL’S WAVE got away slowly before closing from left field to just miss in a 10-horse field in her debut, which was taken off the turf. NICKY SCISSORS and WAR GODDESS are two more second-time starters who could have a say in the outcome.

SIXTH RACE

SEVEN PLUS SEVEN was softened up in a speed duel in a recent first-level allowance, in his first start since earning his diploma in a gate-to-wire romp. He could make all the running in this $25K NW2 claimer, which doesn’t contain much other speed. DR. DEVERA’S WAY has been gelded since a subpar performance over a sloppy strip in his first try at this price Nov. 24. CAVARADOSSI manhandled $20K maidens over an off track in his latest, and isn’t out of his league here from a Beyer perspective. This jockey/trainer combo is 3 for 11 at the meet.

SEVENTH RACE

CALL PAUL attended a rapid pace before fading to fifth last time when favored in a rich stakes for 3yos at Mahoning Valley. The G2 stakes winner earned Beyers in the upper 90s when placing in a pair of stakes for 3yos and up last fall, and should take some beating in this second-level optional claimer. MR. DOUGIE FRESH was claimed away from CALL PAUL’s trainer, Jason Servis, when a front-running second going a mile at this level Dec. 12. Leading rider Lezcano retains the mount for Rudy Rod, who has mediocre recent numbers first-time off the halter switch. IDENTITY POLITICS comes off a belated third behind the latter. He should be along to pick up some of the pieces here going 6 1/2 furlongs, a distance that’s shorter than he wants to go.

EIGHTH RACE

ASSAULT AND PEPPER made up some ground from 11th to finish 7 1/2 lengths back when traveling three-quarters in her $40K debut. She’s bred to welcome the stretchout to a mile in this $25K maiden event, and her trainer has solid numbers pertaining to this situation. STUY TOWN BABY should be favored off a neck loss going 1 1/6 miles on the grass in her first route try. The daughter of Bellamy Road is bred to go long on the dirt. BE MAGIC is eligible to crack the top three for the first time off the Rice claim, with Lezcano taking over. Tampa shipper SHES EUPHORIC is a wild card with blinkers off.