ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MARY ALICE

FIRST RACE

PRINCESS CADEY draws best, can get the distance, adds ground, and has some speed. We can do no more so let’s move on. BE WITH US goes second time Lasix and puts the blinkers ON all while having some upside. We like that she can ship and run well. Both starts to date are solid but something tells us a one turn mile might be just right. ROMA DELIGHT just missed at this down and distance. The rail draw is a small knock but her figs are solid and she was facing better not that long ago.

SECOND RACE

BEE’SNBEE’S goes third off the layoff and gets back to one turn. We like that she has worked twice since her most recent. Beaten favorite angle applies. RUN ON ENERGY is feeling good, gets in light, and should like a one turn mile. A better price than a few of these, right? NANA’S SHOES is proven on this dirt and draws well. New barn is 24% off the claim. Race flow is average so no help there and this filly is a closer so no guarantee of a clean trip.

THIRD RACE

VANIDOSA just doesn’t face a whole lot in here. She finally gets off the rail after being buried there in her last two starts. She won’t be that far off the early pace as there isn’t much speed in here and perhaps that makes for a good trip. We like how she showed better tactical speed in her most recent and that was after breaking 8th of 9. DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN likes this dirt and loves this distance. Works are fine. Chiappe gets a leg up and that is a 38% connection with this barn. DAT DARES GOLD won three back at this level. Her last few weren’t so hot but allowance foes were tough. At times, this mare has some front speed and this is a good spot for that.

FOURTH RACE

SI MAMACITA is the fresh face and we like that always. This is her first start on a real dirt surface and her sibs were better on said surface. Trainer stats are solid across the board but especially so on the dirt and with maiden claimers (flat bet profit).

THIRSTY AGAIN goes for a good barn and gets in light once again. Form cycle hints at better and she did go favored in her most recent. MARGIE’S BAND goes second time this level and adds a full furlong today. The knocks are the rail draw going seven panels and losing her last few as the chalk.

FIFTH RACE

CATONSVILLE did break his maiden on this dirt four back in the slop. We can forgive that sub par try three back when facing 12 foes and first time winners. Wins in his last two at Chucktown should have him brimming with confidence. He cuts back to one turn today and we are fine with that while trainer stats are great across the board. LIQUID HERO has speed and adds two furlongs. There is some other speed in here but we think this gelding is quickest so wire please. ONE MORE TOM did run OK two and three back at this distance. Not sure what happened last out other than he hadn’t tried two turns in a while. Race flow is fine for this closer.

SIXTH RACE

WEEKEND FLYER has some speed, gets in light, draws nice, figures a good trip, likes this dirt, and has won at the distance. She has tied or improved her Beyer in four straight. STRAIGHT MADNESS just ran well last out and now goes second time this dirt. With her tactical speed, this post is fine. Trainer stats are very good across the board. LIFE IN FLASH always gets a ton of play. She simply won for fun in her last few. This barn is 25% with horses that won their previous start. This filly is 3 for 3 when breaking from the rail and 0 for 5 when not. CLASSICAL LADY exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 44 and 41.

SEVENTH RACE

BOBBY G is just feeling good. Perhaps he just found himself too far back in recent GP try or he just didn’t like it down there. His local tries 2, 3, and 4 back are more like it. Win rider returns and we love today’s race shape. PORT LOUIS likes seven furlongs here so a flat mile should be no

problem. This gelding has some speed and there isn’t a ton of zip in here and that should make for a comfy trip. Is the weight break the missing link for this horse? We like how he blew up the tote two back but still returned for a solid try last out.

FREE TO TRUMP doesn’t have the figs of some of these but that just means a good price. We kicked around putting this gelding on top. This horse just loves this distance on this dirt.

EIGHTH RACE

ELUSIVE HERO exits a key race where everyone returned to either win or place and did so with Beyers of 82, 74, 75, and 76. This gelding has always liked this dirt and is comfortable at this distance. He finished second and third the last two times he drew the rail. GOTHAM NEWS gets some pace to chase and wants to pass runners. He lost by a nose when last seen returning off a layoff. Local tab is just fine at 11-3-2-2. PENDRELL MOON is another closer. What if he didn’t like off tracks of late? You get Ness in your corner at what might be a decent price and McCarthy stays put.

NINTH RACE

MARY ALICE has speed and comes in fresh. Isn’t that enough if also a good price? This barn is 2 for 3 when dropping into maiden claimers. Added distance actually helps theft chances. This filly gets off the rail for the first time today. ZIG goes from a 5% barn to a 23% barn. We spy two recent works. This filly has tactical speed and keeps regular jock. OLIN’S HONOR has never run poorly. She has tied or improved her Beyer in every start. Those Keeneland foes before the layoff were ultra tough.