ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FAST GETAWAY

FIRST RACE

AMAZING RIDE debuted in a strong-looking field four weeks ago and showed good speed to contest the pace, before proving to be no match for a pair of promising fillies in the final furlong; trainer has had a quiet year but he has a history of strong success with second-time starters. SKY TAP is by Wicked Strong, who is off to a 4 for 47 start with his juvenile first time starters, and this filly is from a solid female family; breezed 21-flat in April before being purchased for $179k and turned over to Englehart, who has already sent out 10 2yo debut winners this year. BROOKE AND EMORY has a big pedigree being by Speightstown and out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like, who did all of her damage on turf; debuts sprinting gon dirt for Shug, who has a god crop of 2yos this year.

SECOND RACE

WORTH A SHOT has run well in all three turf starts to date and took a step forward to break his maiden in dominant fashion last time after sitting a trip; back quickly with turf season rapidly coming to a close and id bred to continue to stretch out. DASHING DAN didn’t run his best race last time while in and among horses for most of that trip in a race that went to closers; willing to give him another chance based on his first start for Cox at Saratoga where he was bet hard late and was sent on a fast pace, before falling to closers late. NUTZFORBOLTZ an infrequent winner and a poor gate horse but he continues to show up and make his run late; this race may set up well for him once again.

THIRD RACE

THOUSAND PERCENT is 0-3 since being claimed by these connections but he has caught two wet tracks and then tried turf last time to no avail; needs to improve assuming everyone shows up but is eligible to do so and his overall form sprinting on fast dirt is solid. ARISTOCRATIC got loose and wired a similar field over this distance two back then got in a tougher race off the claim last time and was never holding his stretch lead; dangerous speed dropping back down. DEEP SEA was a couple of photos away from winning seven straight fr Servis and Rudy before being claimed last December; ran well first time out for these connections then lost his form in a pair of tougher spots; a contender here if ready off the bench.

FOURTH RACE

SOMES SOUND has faced the talented Free Enterprise in all three starts to date and he really came to hand last time when putting blinkers on and showing more speed; tough in here if able to repeat that effort, though he’ll be a short price this time. LONG TERM THINKING was disqualified from his debut win in what has turned out to be a solid race and he chased and then fell short after making a game late run last time at Parx; puts blinkers on and is a threat to the favorite with one more step forward. ALAN’S ARGUMENT is by 20% debut sire Violence and from a dam who went 4 for 7 on dirt in her career, including clear-cut wins in the first two starts of her career; makes a belated debut for a very good trainer and has drawn to the outside.

FIFTH RACE

ENGLISH BREEZE looked good winning first time out at Saratoga and she has gone on to hold her own in stakes company in her last two starts; keeps improving and faces an easier field in this redrawn race. SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER was left in to gain some experience when rained off for her debut and she took a significant step forward when getting to the grass in her second start; was hard held in some early traffic in that turf debut but ultimately landed in a nice trip and was an easy winner at the end. MICHELINE has enough dirt pedigree to make that Alcibiades try a logical move but she has been much better on turf so far despite

showing signs of greenness along the way; put in a nice late run into a paceless race in her debut then broke her maiden in the Sorority despite still trying to get in through the stretch.

SIXTH RACE

FAST GETAWAY returned from the layoff with a good effort while being forced to rate early behind a front-running winner, before gamely prevailing for 3rd; underrated turf sprinter won his only start over Aqueduct turf and is at his best over this distance. LIGHT THE POSSE made his first turf start two back at Saratoga and came with a strong late run in that race to pull off something of an upset; this is a better field but he may simply be better on this surface and there is speed in this race. DOWSE’S BEACH likes to be forward so a fast pace could work against him but he has races that make him very tough in here; can be inconsistent but he is tough when he is good.

SEVENTH RACE

BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON didn’t run his best race despite going off the claim for Rudy last time but that was a much tougher race and the sloppy track did him no favors; his recent form hasn’t been his best, which is more of a concern, but willing to give this trainer one more chance to get him back to one of his good races. PROVEN RESERVES began with some promise for top connections but has not managed to come forward as a 4yo though, in fairness to him, he has tried some pretty tough spots; goes turf to dirt looking to turn in around in a more likely spot. GUNS OF STEEL has to prove that he can run as well for these connections after being claimed away from Navarro while in form, though that last one in stakes company is not one to hold against him; his speed should play in this race and he paired up 90 Beyers when on the lead two and three starts back.

EIGHTH RACE

LEMON ZIP has something to prove in a race like this but her improved form since being stretched out in distance is hard to overlook and she has already run her good race in NY; easily handled colts two back before returning six days later to just miss while facing males once again on the Japan Cup. PAMINA has a distance question still to answer but she ran better than it looks over this trip in the Flaming Page when getting a bad ride and losing her best chance while getting shuffled to last around the turn; prefer her upside to the established form of some of the others. LADY MONTDORE took her first two stateside starts last year, including the Glens Falls when loose on an easy pace, but hasn’t won since; getting some class relief for this and she didn’t run poorly in her Glens Falls title defense last time when battling down to midstretch vs. a better field.

NINTH RACE

ASHAAR finds no easy spot in this Nashua but he made a highly-promising debut while showing a willingness to come to hand for his rider, and then responding when asked to take charge in the stretch; bred to stretch out and drew perfectly on the outside. MERU looked like a top 2yo when flat overpowering maidens on debut and he came back to earn a 95 Beyer while easily handling stakes rivals second time out; has the pedigree to get the mile and looks like the horse to beat, though this is a very good running of the Nashua. INDEPENDENCE HALL debuted in the slightly slower division of 7-furlong MSW events on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard (the other division was won by CHASE TRACKER for Pletcher) but liked the way this Constitution colt did it while tracking behind the leaders, before coming clear at the top of the stretch and putting in a good finish to go clear; tough spot but he may be a fair price and he looks to have some real upside.

TENTH RACE

POINT OF HUMOR and DUNCASTLE matched on the pace going seven last time and settled for 2nd and 3rd behind a first time turf runner from the Chad Brown barn; think the cut back to six might help POINT OF HUMOR the most and dropping in for $40k also works to his advantage. RED MULE has come up short in all four NY starts at this level, including that narrow loss in his lone run over this turf course; has good speed and cutting back from that seven-furlong try last time is good for him.