ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, FENDER BENDER

FIRST RACE

BUY WAVE BUY is by a 0 for 1 debut sire. Her dam went 4-1-0-2 and earned 19K. Lone sibling is To The Limits and she won her only start on this dirt at the Mcl 8K level and did so for the same owner/ trainer/jockey as our top pick. Lots and lots of works and connections see fit for a higher debut level than barn mate. BIFFY popped and stopped in her debut and figures to improve second time racing. A good sign that Arrieta stays put. This is dam’s first foal so no help there. CARIBBEAN QUEEN can pass runners and gets a little pace to chase today. The added half furlong is what we like best.

SECOND RACE

BEAT THE HEAT just broke his maiden but it is how he did it that we respect the most. He was trying two turns and the turf for the first time and then won easily. He is bred to like the grass and finds a good spot to improve even though he is facing first time winners. He doesn’t have to have the front end to run well but if it is tried then this inside post is a small plus. CELTURIAN ran well on this sod 1 and 3 back. His turf breeding is the best in this race (333 Tomlinson). His tactical speed helps with his trip. Win rider in Stevens opts to stay with our top pick so Mawing gets his shot to be the hero today. SUANCES SECRET likes to be up close and personal in the early running. Does he have a penchant for less? He doesn’t need an early breather to run well and that is good as there is other speed in here. CHELOKEE’S LEGACY exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 63 and 76 (another finished 2nd with a 61 Beyer).

THIRD RACE

FENDER BENDER broke slowly in his most recent but recovered enough to finish third while beating over half the field home. Many a runner when finding themselves further back that what they are used to simply spit the bit but not this colt. The 2 and 5 are pure speeds and that could set things up nicely for this 4YO colt. We even like this outside post. DOC CURLIN just got a 75 Beyer when first on this dirt. He can pass runners and has some back

class all while retaining the leading rider. LONDON

LEGACY is feeling great for the leading barn. This 7YO knows only one way to go and that is speed, speed, and more speed. How much or how far STORMY TEEN can test him will probably determine this race.

FOURTH RACE

We have to admit that we have never seen this condition before. It is non winners of 2 race since October 12, 2018, or which have never won FIVE races. It sure looks as if this race was writing for WINDWARD STORM. The only question we have is how low a price she will be. She is feeling great and is versatile. We would think that 2/5 is about right. YUMA THURMAN might be quickest but a lot will depend on two inside neighbors. This mare didn’t get a breather three back but still ran OK. ROYAL KINGDOM may not have cared for 6 furlongs last out. She finished second at 9/2 the last time she tried five panels (5 back).

FIFTH RACE

SANTA FE BLAZE has SoCal speed on the class drop. Arrieta gets a leg up and he is 27% with Metz. Main pace foe draws outside. This gelding should be too good for these but you never know, you know. ROCKING CHIEFTAIN just ran better when trying a flat mile for the first time. We would think that he chases our top pick around the track and you certainly don’t want to pick a pace fight in this spot. He is cross entered on the 4th so maybe he will opt for that. STRYKER’S DREAM went favored last out even though he was trying two turns for the first time. We like that connections want a flat mile again.

SIXTH RACE

WALK AWAY is feeling good and has never run a poor race. New barn wastes little time finding this filly a route try and we can see why. Lone sib to try two turns is a multiple route winner. This high percentage barn is 21% on the stretch-out. The leading rider stays put for the probable race favorite. MISS TIZZY FIT just didn’t fire last out even though she was dropping in class. Sometimes the girls just throw in a poor one. Her route breeding is rock solid. We don’t mind the jock switch to Shannon Beauregard. MISTLETOE is kind of a grinder. Class drop and surface switch go well with rail draw and off the pace ability.

SEVENTH RACE

STELLA MALONE has won on the grass before and catches a race that is weak for the level. We love the jock switch to Stevens and he is 35% for the Davis barn. There isn’t that much pace in this race so a forward approach seems likely and few are better with speed runners than this jockey. POCO SUENOS just ran a Beyer top on this sod. We like that she was 5 up on the third place finisher. SHY comes in fresh and ready. She did get a 54 Beyer on this sod three back. HIT THE DECK is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam went 15-3-3-1 on the green and earned 27K. This is dam’s first foal. Last race came back key when 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 45 and 34. JUSTA BLUE HAT is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the grass. Two of four sibs did win on the green. We shall now forget this race.

EIGHTH RACE

BIG TALL PAUL found himself further back than what he is used to but still rallied some to finish fourth. Some horses spit the bit when in unusual circumstances so kudos for that...or you could say that this gelding should have rallied more considering the sub 45 split he was chasing. A return to restricted foes can only help and this gelding is feeling great at the age of 12. Best of all is that he seems to really like 6 1/2 furlongs now. DREAMCATCHER has won twice at today’s tricky distance. We love the jock switch to Beauregard. This barn is quite good on the cut back at 25%. I’M FOCUSED looks like the speed. His most recent was better and he is only a 5YO. This barn is over 30% with dirt, sprint, and claimers.