ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, PLAINSMAN

FIRST RACE

TIZ NO BLUFF 0-4 at relatively short prices since arriving in NY but has faced better in those races and exits a good try when contesting the pace in a closers race going longer at Saratoga; drops with the back races to be hard on this field. SLOT dropped in class at Saratoga and did no running at a short price, and returns for nearly half the price off the claim; has speed and some better back races to get to. SINGLE GEM has settled for second-best in three straight since returning from a layoff, most recently when stretched out at Saratoga behind an odds-on favorite; back to a better distance here off the claim.

SECOND RACE

VELVET TRINNI has faced better than this is all of her dirt starts since breaking her maiden back in January, including that last one when outrun behind a modest pace and failing to make a run; has run some competitive races in the past, especially when properly spotted, which has rarely been the case, and she has speed. PROBLEM SOLVING didn’t break well and was no factor behind a sharp winner at Saratoga last time but her dirt efforts outside of the MSW ranks have all been solid otherwise; faced much better horses in her two starts following the maiden win, though she had a perfect trip vs. a weak field in that spot. PARANOIA was very disappointing after showing no speed and getting outrun when back on dirt two starts back and she didn’t do a whole lot better last time when a no threat 3rd after chasing the pace; seems to be off form right now but has some races from earlier this year that would make her tough to handle in this spot.

THIRD RACE

PLAINSMAN shaped with some potential early this year after breaking his maiden and he ran his best race yet first time for this trainer when forced very wide off the turn in a race that was dominated up close; doesn’t have to be that far away in this short field, and is helped by the fact that both POINT TO REMEMBER and MR. BUFF want to be forward. POINT TO REMEMBER doesn’t have the early speed that MR. BUFF has, but he has improved since stretched out in distance in his last two starts and he is likely to be taking a shot at that horse sooner rather than later; has to improve but holds the upside. MR. BUFF has disappointed in some spots this year while opening his campaign 0-8, and he wasn’t a cinch to get the distance at Saratoga last time, but he proved to be way too much for that weak field right on the front end; has the speed again and will not be easy to run down if holding his form.

FOURTH RACE

TUSK and GIANT RUN exit the same race when dropped in class at Saratoga and they were both badly compromised there with winner Souperfast getting turned loose on an easy pace. TUSK took the worst of tit there while taken to that back of that field early and then trying to rally wide, and did well to get 4th when all was said and done. GIANT RUN had his chance to stay forward in that spot but was content to rate and couldn’t make a race of it late; 5yo still looking to get back to his best form following an extended layoff. HOCKEY SCHOOL still had his speed off the layoff in Florida over the winter but he did not run his best in those races and he was dull in a tougher spot when returned from another layoff at Saratoga; expect him to show up with his speed as he drops in class and that could make him dangerous.

FIFTH RACE

TELL ME MA debuted late last year and wound up contesting the pace inside of the talented Colonel Tom before getting left behind in the stretch, then made his only other start over a sloppy main track; returns for his 3yo debut as a gelding in a field where the main contenders have already had their chances. LEM ME TEL YA tried to stretch out to no avail when last seen in June but he has otherwise run well in all of his turf starts sprinting; looks like

the horse to beat for connections off to a good start at the meet. WILD WILLIAM has held his own in four starts at this level so far but he has lacked punch in the stretch and settled for minor awards; tactical speed gives him the chance to get first run on some of the closers but he still has to finish.

SIXTH RACE

NO DISTORTION tried turf off the claim for sharp connections and was no factor after getting bumped back at the start; has the back dirt form to turn things around quickly in this spot, which projects to set up well for him, and he took the worst of it when last on dirt two back, contesting the pace on a dead rail in a race that fell apart late. ALRIGHT ALRIGHT got bumped and the start and then got wired when protected in his first start off the long layoff in March then had no chance in his next start when routed by class-dropping Hey Jabber Jaw; dropping all the way down following another layoff, which does not inspire confidence, but he has better back races than most of these if he can still run. HALLOWEEN HORROR has not been competitive in his recent starts as he works his way down the ladder but he has the right running style for this race and is another who was running races earlier this year that would give him a chance; needs his best, especially over this shorter distance.

SEVENTH RACE

TENENCY ran better than it looks in his first two starts then got jammed up in the pocket most recently before failing to fire when finally clear; scratched by the vet before being allowed to compete in that August 30th race that several of these are exiting, but think he is better than he looks and willing to give him another chance assuming all is well. BOURBON N RYE was making his debut on that 8/30 heat and contested the pace all the way before tiring late; speedy gelding may have the early lead to himself this time. READY TO ESCAPE was racing for purse only when chasing wide and closing mildly for 3rd last time in yet another start where he was slow from the gate; ran well in a pair of highly-rated races early in the year but he needs to start getting out of the gate.

EIGHTH RACE

PROFITEER hasn’t quite classed-up with stakes horses so far but his overall form is solid and he posted a strong win two back with a new top figure when holding on for a share; that win came going longer but this cut back in distance suits him well. MARCH dropping out of a couple of graded stakes tries for his first start off the layoff for a trainer who is on a good run in NY over the past few months; just 1 for 8 0n turf in his career but he has been in some tough spots and held his own. BLACKTYPE got a perfect trip and handled weaker two back with some class relief then came up empty in the Lure over softer ground, which he generally handles pretty well; logical in here with his good race as his tactical speed gives Rosario options.

NINTH RACE

GOOD OLD BOY ran three times on turf late last year at the MSW level and he actually ran well in the second of those while contesting the pace all the way before letting go late; tough go off the layoff last time when bumped back to last at the start and then trying to rally along the rail in the stretch. MARTINI LANE an unknown in this spot, which isn’t the worst thing in the world, and made a little run after moving wide on the dirt last time on a day when the inside seemed like the place to be; doesn’t have a ton of pedigree but like the Teuflesberg’s on the grass and he’ll be a price. TIME EXPIRED was part of a rated pace that held together when hitting the board at a huge price in his turf debut then came back last time and closed into a race that fell apart late to come up just short; good efforts are circumstantial but he is adaptable and fits well with this group.