ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, THE KEEPER

FIRST RACE

THE KEEPER was ridden pretty quietly from far behind the leaders in his debut. Meanwhile, his coupled stable-mate Dob Dob was cut loose around the far turn and rolled to victory. Loads of pedigree and worked back at M Dickinson’s farm. Suspect there’s more there. YOWZA YOWZA YOWZA doesn’t necessarily look like a turf horse but does look like he’d be competitive if this were rained onto the main. Turf speed often is golden during the LRL fall-winter season and GOLDEN NOGUEZ probably is going to the front.

SECOND RACE

4yo SPRINGTIME WIND generally fires if she’s put in the right spots. Claimed for this $5K tag July 20 by this barn, freshened, three works, and — seems to be in the right spot. DOINWHATSHELIKES has a long-term declining arc and because of that can’t really be expected to improve off her recent form. With that in mind it’s hard to see why she’d be 2-1 compared to SW’s 5-1 as the morning line forecasts, but that might really be the case. GREELY’S STRIKER is making her third start in a month, isn’t proven over a distance this far, and is expected to be a short price while stuck down at rail.

THIRD RACE

It’s taken some work to get MANY BLESSINGS to this, her career debut - first published workout showing from 2016. $15K auction buy for this owner debuts in a $16K maiden-claimer, which is not the end of the world. Trainer also had the best of the sibling’s, Everything Lovely, who was a stakes-winning turf sprinter. SHALL TRY ran in place when last seen Aug. 9 in a sprint rained from turf onto dirt. Just needs to run back to the second-start turf showing to prove major factor here. PRINCESS KILLMAIN led and held second under similar conditions two back and might benefit drawing a mid-gate post this time after being stuck inside.

FOURTH RACE

Granted it was only a $16K maiden-claimer Aug. 8 but ROSY’S RAINBOW was ridden out to an eightlength win, and makes her interesting considerably up in class off a claim is the fact she’d never before tried dirt. Might still have upside on the surface and should be fairly priced here. SARAH’S TREASURE taken out of last by trainer C Gonzalez, who is a cool 36% wins through a decent-sized recent sample of first-claimed starters. This one, for other barns, at least, has been stricken with a career-long case of second-itis. BRIDGEWATER, like the top pick, quickly won a maiden race last out in first dirt try.

FIFTH RACE

MORE ABUNDANCE became a totally different horse when shifted from dirt to turf in May. Been given a month since an N1X score in most recent start and $35K claiming tag doesn’t feel negative at all when you look at his age and history. Hoping sent to front here. SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS seeking fourth straight win and claimed twice in a row. Taken on the drop at SAR but does get a positive boost to allowance here, though wondering if the speed figures in this case might over-rate win chance. ALIGN THE NUMBERS is by Orientate, not a hapless turf sire, but have to think his best chance comes with a rain-off. 3yo improved through the spring, back from a break with chance to move farther forward this fall.

SIXTH RACE

IF I WAS A BOY would be considerably shorter than 12-1 on the morning line were this race on turf, like his two most recent runs, rather than dirt. But perhaps the recent jump in form was as much related to the barn change as racing surface? If

that’s even partially true the listed odds would be more than fair. In any case it’s hard even in this short field to feel good about eating a short price on likely favorite D J’S FAVORITE, who just lost at 7-5 in a similar spit and never has run “fast” enough to actually merit the low odds. BLUEGRASS

FLAG would probably need to make the front from rail draw to have a solid win chance and not sure she’s quick enough to do that.

SEVENTH RACE

REILTIN OIR given a positive hike from $16K MCL last time to $25K here after coming close in first start for this barn. Stretches from sprint to route which on pedigree is fine, and hoping she shows speed, makes front, controls pace. Wouldn’t fear the shorter prices in this spot. Once started TAPANISTA basically just ran around the track debuting in a DelPark MSW and the placement for $25K MCL here seems more realistic than negative. 11-race maiden GOODNIGHT MOON drops to lowest level seeking elusive first win. Listed at 2-1 on the line, which would not be at all appealing.

EIGHTH RACE

BLAME THE KIDS based at CT but winning barn seems interested in racing him around full-sized ovals. Looks like he’ll get the mile and appears to fit the class level, which would make the 10-1 morning-line odds seem like fair value. LEGEND’S HOPE drops meaningfully in class and has been running fast enough to win a race like this - but personally would find it very difficult to trust this animal to step out and get to the wire in front of the herd. IN HIM WITH HIM was second of seven at LRL two back in a race just like this. No problem using that form as a guide but the rail draw could hinder him.

NINTH RACE

BELLERUE is going to be overbet again but I’ll bite one more time with the “blinkers on” angle in play. Would almost rather see her sent to set a solid pace than be held up and try to outfinish the chasers since she doesn’t seem to have much turn of foot. DARCY MAE won two straight starter/claimers with conditions and gets a positive move into the allowance ranks, but there’s little doubt her most recent win was pace-aided. PROUD O’PADDY nipped the top pick last time and will be a better price again if you’re a believer.

TENTH RACE

THAT’S THAT caught a yielding course and actually came home decently last out in career debut, which is somewhat obscured by an eighth-place finish. Got too far behind early in that race but that need not happen again now for good second-out barn. FORT LOVE was back from a long layoff and on dirt for the first time in the Aug. 3 start and is likely to do better than that be this on turf or dirt. Two turns could help. ARCHITECT was finding some decent stride late in her 7 1/2 furlong debut on turf two back, was rained onto dirt last time, and gets an added eighth of a mile to work with here if the race remains on grass.