Tag along on Carson’s high-stakes Saratoga quest

Scott Carson has been a known quantity on the contest scene for a long time. His website publichandicapper.com has been holding tournaments online since 1999, and before that, he ran a contest among his friends via fax (kids, ask your parents).

In recent years, Carson has made his mark by making money in contests. He won one of the Saratoga contests in 2016 and cashed in this year’s Monmouth Pick Your Prize event. His biggest cash came in this year’s National Horseplayers Championship, where he finished sixth and walked away with $62,000.

Not one to sit on his laurels, Carson has decided to pursue a new betting goal this summer. He’s starting the Saratoga meet with a $50,000 bankroll.

“It’s called the $50,000 or Bust Saratoga Challenge,” Carson said. “I’m going to win $50,000 or go bust at the meet. Now is my chance to do it because I just sold my [computer consulting] company, and I don’t have to work for a year or so.”

Carson’s project was inspired by Andrew Beyer’s work, specifically “My $50,000 Year at the Races” from 1977. The book is a classic that tracks Beyer’s gambling odyssey that year from Gulfstream Park, Pimlico, Saratoga, and the Great Barrington Fair. When it was over, Beyer had made $50,664.

“Reading that book got me so excited to play horses years ago, and throwing down the gauntlet to himself was a brilliant idea,” Carson said. “I figure in this day and age, when there are supers and pick fives and sixes, the same amount should be winnable in six weeks vs. a year.”

Steven Crist’s book “Exotic Betting” was another major influence on the project. “I love Saratoga,” Carson said. “I generally do pretty well there. I just reread ‘Exotic Betting,’ and Steve Crist was talking about how great Saratoga is because there is so much uninformed money going into the betting pools – people betting hunches, names, whatever. This is a great opportunity. And if I can do well, then I can just extend my retirement.”

Another benefit to the project for Carson is the chance to develop “muscle memory” for making larger wagers, something he believes he’ll need to do should he decide to play horses professionally at some stage.

“One of the reasons I enter high-bankroll contests is to force myself to bet big,” he said, “and by issuing this challenge to myself and doing it publicly, it allows me to bet out of my comfort zone and learn how to bet big in the right situations.”

Carson has known professional bettor Maury Wolff for years through a horse-racing message board. Wolff, who may or may not be the basis for one of the characters in Beyer’s book, has been very helpful to Carson on his journey.

“He told me to keep playing contests,” Carson said. “He pointed out that very often the equity value is there. There are a lot of contests where the entry fees come back in the form of prizes. There’s not much, if any, takeout. He told me that was one of my strengths and thought I should focus on them.”

Carson has taken Wolff’s advice to heart. He has $6,000 of his $50,000 tied up in two entries each day for the Saratoga contests on Aug. 10-11.

Wolff’s other key piece of advice was to shift his focus more to the betting side of the equation. “He encouraged me to spend at least as much time constructing my bets as I do handicapping the race,” Carson said. “If you’re spending an hour handicapping the race, spend at least an hour figuring out how you’re going to pull money out of that race. When I’ve done it, it’s been good. But I have to do a lot more of it.”

Carson isn’t looking to play every race; rather, he’s looking to find the spots where he can extract the most value and therefore dollars. There was such a spot Monday, when he liked the 27-1 winner Ruby Notion. He hit the race well enough, but it wasn’t all he’d hoped for. He was feeling a little gun shy after a tough opening three days of the meet.

“If I bet with my opening-day vigor, I would have crushed that day,” he said.

Carson plans on tweeting about his mission throughout, and you can follow along at @CarsoniPH. And he believes that letting people follow along will make him play better.

“Having accountability makes you a better player because it forces you not to be stupid,” he said. “It’s easier to blow a bankroll, get depressed, and try to forget about it than to blow a bankroll and have to tell the world. That’s why I decided to admit I blew $4,000 on the first day, because if I didn’t tell everyone, it would be easy to pretend that it didn’t happen. Now I have public accountability and am investing the time to construct my bets smarter.”

If Carson’s track record is any indication, despite the rough beginning, he will hit the wire in front.