Analyze the Odds leads derby

Finger Lakes will hold the second-richest race of its season on Saturday, the $150,000 New York Derby, a 1 1/16-mile race for statebred 3-year-olds. The card also includes the $75,000 New York Oaks.

The richest race at Finger Lakes, the $200,000-estimated New York Breeders’ Futurity, is scheduled for Sept. 29.

The 2017 New York Derby was won by Twisted Tom, who went on to win six of his seven starts at 3, all for Chad Brown, including the $300,000 Empire Classic Handicap over older rivals. At year’s end, he was voted champion New York-bred 3-year-old male.

Analyze the Odds will be favored in this year’s derby for owner Michael Dubb and trainer Jason Servis, who claimed him from Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher for $80,000 out of a first-level optional claimer at Aqueduct in April. Analyze the Odds will carry 124 pounds and concede six pounds to each of his five rivals.

In his lone start since the claim, Analyze the Odds rallied from well back at 20-1 to win the seven-furlong Mike Lee on May 28 at Belmont Park. As of Wednesday, Analyze the Odds had not had a recorded work since the $125,000 Lee.

Analyze the Odds is 1 for 1 at Finger Lakes, having won the New York Breeders’ Futurity at 2. The son of Overanalyze has won at a mile, but the derby will be his first start around two turns.

Junior Alvarado is scheduled to make his Finger Lakes debut on Analyze the Odds.

Sea Foam will offer Analyze the Odds his sternest challenge while making his third start of the year. He finished fourth to Analyze the Odds at 5-2 in the Mike Lee, then was fifth against open company on turf in the $100,000 Manila at Belmont.

Trained by Christophe Clement, Sea Foam defeated Analyze the Odds last November in the $100,000 Notebook. He rallied from just off the pace to win by a length. Analyze the Odds finished sixth, beaten 8 1/4 lengths.

Jaime Rodriguez, who leads the Finger Lakes rider standings, picks up the mount.

The 1 1/16-mile Oaks has a field of 11 and will match Downstate shippers English Soul and Split Time against the streaking local runner Crashing Connie.

English Soul, trained by Ray Handal, and Split Time, who races for Linda Rice, finished second and third behind Rice’s three-time stakes winner Midnight Disguise in the Bouwerie at Belmont Park on May 28.

English Soul, who won the East View two starts back in January, has worked three times since June 30 for the New York Oaks.

Since the Bouwerie, Split Time shipped to Laurel Park to win the open Alma North.

Alvarado will ride Split Time. Maryland rider Sheldon Russell is named on English Soul, who will be his first local mount.

English Soul and Split Time will carry 124 pounds. Crashing Connie, who has won four straight races at Finger Lakes, all for James Wright, gets in at 118 under Emanuel De Diego.

Front-running Crashing Connie won her first stakes June 18, when she held on by a nose to take the Niagara over New Girl in Town, who has since come back to win an allowance race and is entered in the Oaks.