ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, TIZ PRICELESS

FIRST RACE

BATTLE OF SARATOGA was gaining slowly late when defeated as an odds-on favorite in his most recent dirt start but earned a second straight 70+ Beyer for that effort, and faces a field on the drop that has combined to make 39 starts without reaching that level; has been scratched by the vet a couple of times recently after getting off to a late start, so there are issues, but he is supposed to be tough in this spot. IRISH MARAUDER debuted in a fast-paced sprint at Saratoga a couple of summers ago and has managed only three starts since, but he has caught muddy tracks in both dirt starts that are separated by a long layoff and passed some horses late in those races; can do better second back over fast footing. RUMBLES OF THUNDER went long off the layoff while making his first start for a tag and was blown out by a runaway odds-on favorite; threat to the favorite if building on 67 Beyer earned on debut with that one out of the way.

SECOND RACE

TIZ PRICELESS didn’t earn much of a figure but she was impressive winning her turf debut in handy fashion at Gulfstream, and she pressed an in-form Lion in Wait of the lead throughout her first start with other winners last time, before weakening late and succumbing to the closers; think she’s better than she may appear on paper. HOPON THE BUS GUS the one to beat following sharp win off the layoff that was at least somewhat surprising; has stretched out successfully in her two most recent turf starts after looking like a closing sprinter early on. HOPE’S ROAR improved throughout 2017 for this trainer to finally get her overdue maiden win at Saratoga, and then come right back to win again over this course with a new top figure; had carried on since to win again, and she finished a good 2nd to front-running Classy Dancer most recently.

THIRD RACE

Thought KILLALA BAY made an underrated debut early in the year while putting in a wide run around the turn before flattening out, and he then came back to catch a muddy track and make no impact behind a favored Pletcher first-time starter; hoping he can take a step forward after having some time to develop further, and he returns with some improved works. PERFECT JOKE one of several interesting firsters in this field, and he is by a sire who is off to a good start with his young horses, especially his sprinters; trainer highly-underrated with first-time starters. ROYAL HEIST took some sneaky money on NY Showcase Day and then proceeded to flash some good speed before succumbing in a string race that was won from the back by an impressive first-time starter; has the rail but may be fastest early in this field. DEPUTY FLAG is a half to the fast stakes-winning sprinter Bluegrass Flag, who also races for this trainer, while TURBULENCE is a half to two stakes winners from this dam, though they wanted to go a bit longer.

FOURTH RACE

FORMAL EVENT has run well in each of her first four starts without winning before finally breaking through over a weak field in her first one-turn mile on fast dirt; switched back to the main track to run another improved race for 2nd last time behind a strong winner. DARIA’S ANGEL has been at her best around two-turns, but she is better routing and stretches back out for the first time since claimed by this dangerous trainer. STARS WILBURN was no factor behind a couple of these horses last time, but she is not at her best over a wet track; has run well at big prices in her two starts prior to that. DESIROUS broke her maiden right on the front end over this course and distance around this time last year then only managed to race twice more before hitting the sidelines; blew a clear stretch lead to a longshot winner last time, but she made a solid pace that day in the mud.