ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, MADAME UNO

FIRST RACE

RESISTANCE JAK is by a 18% debut turf sire. His dam went 4-0-0-1 on the green stuff and earned 8K. One of three sibs won on the turf and another hit the board. This colt is bred to like two turns and hails from a barn that is 15% on the grass. Not sure what happened last out but some horses just don’t like the one turn mile and this colt was up close early. Notice the tote play to date. HE’S A LEADER gets in light and has some speed. Now is the time to gun early, middle, and late and let the cards fall where they may. GOING TO THE BEACH stumbled at the start in his most recent and was trying the dirt for only the second time. He returns to preferred surface, draws nicely, and tried tougher in previous turf starts. The one to beat in other words. ROYAL FLYER is by a 8% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 33-4-8-3 for 140K (75K on the grass). All 4 sibs won and 3 beat winners with 2 of 4 winning on the grass (one debut winner).

SECOND RACE

AS IT HAPPENS gets in light and puts the blinkers ON. Send hard and hope for the best. Works for us. MR. BELL has blown the start in two of his last three starts. Can’t fault connections for wanting the dirt. We didn’t like this guy’s turf pedigree anyway. Now as for the all the layoff lines... yikes. Second time with new barn can’t hurt and last three works are well spaced. Value? Too many variables for that, right? A B G GUERRERO just ran better and now goes third off the layoff. Against this group .... maybe it is enough. R BABY DRIVER is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 5-1-1-0 for 24K. Of 8 sibs to race, 7 won and 5 beat winners.

THIRD RACE

DIZZY GILLESPIE has some tactical speed so that helps the trip some. Perhaps some value if third choice on the tote or better. He can handle this one turn distance no problem. New barn is what we like best as they are 56% off the claim (sample size is small but still). MOONLIGHT BANDIT might get an early breather. Everyone is a decent price if the big chalk stays in. SOLVE is the big chalk but you can see that, right? No one can touch recent 90 Beyer. New barn is 5% off the claim. Why don’t they raise this gelding in class? It is always tricky claiming off a 30% barn if you know what we mean.

FOURTH RACE

ADOSINDA draws the attack post and is probably quickest with a good break. If so, then she earns that all important early breather. Class drop is icing on the cake as is jock switch to Batista (2 for 4 with Wolfson). DON’T BELEVE WATCH cuts back to a more manageable distance. Grinding style might work better at this elongated sprint rather than six furlongs. PERFECT FOX might be a new dirt horse. You can’t fault her maiden breaker only two back. She didn’t get any pace in said maiden breaker either. First time winners last out is its own excuse. Class drop for good measure.

FIFTH RACE

ROYALSTON puts races together and drops in class for possible money run. This gelding did win his turf debut even if over at the old Calder (now GPW). That turf try two back was better than it looks as he reared at the start but still hit the board. Not sure what happened last out but it will help today’s price. A new jock is noted. FREUDIAN FALL seems to like

this sod. He returns to win distance with a new jock in tow. DEPENDABLE PHIL has been OK of late but only OK. Maybe the addition of blinkers will help. Penchant for less? Possibly.

SIXTH RACE

Wow, what a wide open affair here. You can make a good case for seven of these. Simply take the best price? Inside four in a super box and then outside 4 in another super box? If you can find a key horse than even better. CHIEF EXCHANGER is feeling good and might own a pace advantage. If you said a flat mile was his best distance then we couldn’t argue. REFLECTED STAR lures Juarez even though he just won twice for ONE OF A KIND. Jockey/trainer combo of 27% lends a clue. This gelding is capable of a Beyer in the high 80’s or low 90’s. ONE OF A KIND ran a Beyer top when first out for new barn. We like that this colt has worked three times since said Beyer top. This barn is 26% with their route runners and 1 for 1 when Gutierrez rides.

SEVENTH RACE

This might be a good spot for a first time starter. THE GREAT KATH is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. All 4 sibs beat winners. REMINGTON ROSE was stuck on the rail in her debut and that was going 6 1/2 furlongs which we all know is a very tough spot. A better post in her second start and she responded well to finish second. Works tab is fine and you get solid connections. BUT is six furlongs too short? WEALLHAVECHANGED was off slow in her debut and then reluctant to load in her second start. New barn puts the blinkers ON and gets a local work. Tampa lines help the price.

EIGHTH RACE

SILVER DEFENSE showed some promise early in his career when he ran well on this sod versus special weights. Any horse that can win on the Keeneland sod has some talent. This colt had a weird trip when last seen on this sod four back. Those sharp dirt tries 1 and 3 back tell us he is feeling much better. We love the return to the turf. APPA is just solid. Race flow is average so this gelding won’t be that far off the early pace while saving some early ground. CANDY ASSET might have the best upside as this is only his sixth start. Turf figs are fine and you get Mr. Pletcher in your corner.

NINTH RACE

GO AROUND might not be able to handle graded foes but these aren’t those. He has speed but doesn’t have to have the front end. Works are perfect but we wouldn’t expect anything else from this Hall of Fame barn. UNCLE B is feeling great. It is hard to believe that he was facing restricted foes only four back. We like how he is winning. Versatile style is another plus. This gelding has run Beyer tops in back to back starts. He might need another to win this. DUROCHER may have found 12 furlongs a bit much in his most recent. A short layoff to help recover. This colt is only a 4YO and gets good race flow today. We think he will be a price. A good post on top of everything.

TENTH RACE

TEA AND CRICKET adds a full furlong today and that will put him up close and personal in the early going. He won’t have to face quick splits from two back. His most recent was better and that was with a poor break. We love this attack post. A cool, calm, and collected runner in the post parade would only help matters. KOKOMO WILDCAT might be the value. Go to jock gets a leg up. If no one else wants the front end then this gelding will oblige. YES DARLIN is in good form. He gets in light for the second straight start. We spy some solid seven furlong tries in Canada so today’s 6 1/2 is no big deal.

ELEVENTH RACE

MADAME UNO just loves this sod. This filly showed promise from the beginning when she won her debut even though it was two turns on the turf. This filly has speed but can stalk if needed. She will have to win with a new jock today but maybe that helps the price just a tad. ISLAND REWARD is feeling good. We really liked her most recent and she didn’t get the cleanest of trips. She was sent off at 58-1 so you know what kind of a field that grade 3 was. Race flow is only average though. SILVER STEP is your fresh face from France. Of course, Lasix is added. This post is no picnic and race flow isn’t that quick either. It looks like she will just have to be too good for these then.

TWELFTH RACE

LITTLE MISS MAY is bred to like the grass. Second time with new barn is a plus. Class drop makes sense. What about most recent? Turnaround is very fast and that tells us barn is eager to give this filly another shot. MO’S GINNY has some solid turf figs and draws fine. Penchant for less is easy to see. SIERRA LOVE is another close but no cigar type. She went favored two and three back. She does put races together. designates graduate of Keeneland Sale