ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, ABBREVIATE

FIRST RACE

ABBREVIATE is not without something still to prove as far as how good she actually is, but getting out to this distance figures to really suit her, after cutting back to a shorter sprint and racing on gamely late behind a front-running winner last month; win over this course and distance last September was solid, and she came right back to win again under strong handling over flat mile. LADY JOAN starts back from a layoff out of NY-bred conditions but she proved herself to be a capable turf horse as a 3yo, and she appears to be better over shorter distances; has to be ready to step forward off the bench. I’M BETTY G is in many ways the horse to beat dropping out of stakes company and cutting back for a top trainer; her speed plays but it’s worth pointing out that her two turf wins have come vs. $30k maiden claimers at Indiana Grand and in a Maryland-bred race by a nose in a slower race. Haven’t loved the last two turf starts from ANNIE ROCKS, but they were both over six furlongs, and she can benefit from some additional ground here; think she’s always been a bit underrated.

SECOND RACE

GUY AMERICAN DREAM returns quickly after chasing the pace to no avail over turf last Saturday; debuted in a strong race on the main track and he ran well two back when contesting a fast pace before weakening in the stretch. Likely to have to deal with Wushu Warrior early in this spot, but that horse has proven several times over to have trouble finishing his races. THREE GOALS is going to be tough here if able to reproduce that effort three starts back over a mile, where he just missed with this fields top figure, and it may be wise to expect him to run back to that he goes off the claim for top connections, but he is a short price in this race and he did not run well at all last time as a heavy favorite. BAREFOOT ANGEL tough to take on top based on his overall form, as he keeps going down without many excuses, but it is hard to argue with this spot for him, and he could find himself in a good position if GUY AMERICAN DREAM and WUSHU WARRIOR contest things early.

THIRD RACE

RIDE TO THE SUNSET drops back down after getting in way too tough last time vs. the likes of graded stakes-bound Hawkish, and he actually ran pretty well in that race, considering; late-running style is far from ideal, but he may just be better than these horses. CONGRUITY owns more speed than the top one, which is clearly to his benefit, and he is in the right spot here after trying slightly tougher in his two most recent starts; had no excuse when closed down late by MICHAEL WONDERFUL at Aqueduct in his 2017 finale, and he sat a perfect trip to break his maiden first off the claim. MICHAEL WONDERFUL improved when switched to turf for his second career start, then rallied desperately to catch CONGRUITY and Cullum Road (who has won twice since) when last seen in November; starts back with forward to go. ESPRESSO CALIENTE was shuffled out of contention when behind RIDE TO THE SUNSET in minor GP stakes three starts back, though it was hard to tell if he actually had any run in that spot (I suspect that he didn’t); may be better on dirt based on his most recent start.

FOURTH RACE

TAKE YOUR GUNS the kind of horse I would prefer to take a shot against at a short price, which he seems likely to be, but he is catching his main rivals here in poor recent form, and he is holding all of the upside in this field; nice rally to score off the long layoff last month, and he did shape with some potential as a 3yo from limited opportunities. UNCLE SIGH two for three since switching back to dirt recently, where he has been showing improved tactical speed after turning into a closer on turf; Englehart has good numbers off the claim

with dirt routers (24%, $1.92 ROI over the past five years), and you can actually do well taking this kind from Rudy (claimed from, dirt route: 22-97, 23%, $1.96 ROI). DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING looking to turn it around second off the claim after showing the way and proving to be no match in Laurel stakes last time; has the back races to be hard on this kind of field, and like his speed, but he has not run well in his last two starts. Don’t suppose you have to be too down on ADULATOR off that return sprinting, though he did not run well there; can do better with that one behind him, but how good is he, really? FRONTIER MARKET appeared to need that first start back from an extended layoff at GP, and he may have been best last time after moving up to contest the pace with a long way still to go, and only getting outfinished late by a perfectly ridden winner; hard to go anywhere else in this field, unless you have an idea with one of the well-bred firsters. LABEQ has not proven to be very good on the main track, though he did run better last time with a good trip and ride; perhaps he can come forward on turf as he has the pedigree (dam was a very good synth and turf horse in Southern California a few years back); tough post for turf debut. DOMAIN by good turf sire Orb, and he has Phipps class underneath; dam was a Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner on dirt, but she has dropped two turf winners already. INDURATE a full-brother to the multiple Grade 1-winning turf horse Big Blue Kitten debuting for the best of trainers; dam hasn’t dropped much else, and being coupled with COMMANDEERING (switching to turf in first start for Chad Brown) won’t help your price.

SIXTH RACE

KING OF SPADES didn’t find the winner’s circle often after arriving in NY last year, but he held his own in some tougher fields and over a variety of distances, before getting outrun over a speedfavoring Aqueduct inner turf course at the end of last year; fits well here if he can come back running. UNCLE GIO matched up pretty well with some strong fields as a 3yo before missing a full year of racing, and he got back into form quickly at the end of last year; took a tough beat three starts back while earning anew top figure, and he was game with a good trip to prevail in his very next start. NOT IN CHARGE took advantage of a perfect setup into a wicked pace to break his maiden going longer last September, but he was on top of that race before hitting the stretch, and he backed that effort up well when falling just short of front-running Memories of Peter in his next start.

SEVENTH RACE

SATISFY part of an entry making her career debut as a 4yo, though not sure how short they can be in this race; has some pedigree on her side as a half to a couple of multiple winners from this dam, who is herself a sister to a couple of stakes winners, and Mott actually has excellent numbers with older fillies debuting in dirt sprints (past five years, 12 for 33, 34%, $4.21 ROI). KREAH’S RIBBON was a big price in her debut on Wood Memorial Day, where she showed good speed to set then contest a fast pace while down toward the worst part of the track, and then tired in the stretch; moves outside for second start. DOWNTOWN AT NOON ran some good races early last year but could never break through, before her season ended in early July with a failed attempt around two-turns; she’s not bad and will likely be a square price starting back. PAS DE DEUCE another firster with pedigree as a half to a good horse in Preachintothedevil (multiple stakes wins, $242k in earnings) from a Grade 1winning dam, and she starts for an underrated trainer.

EIGHTH RACE

SALUTE WITH HONOR a new face making his NY debut following a game effort for 2nd behind Pletcher’s Driven to Compete, who has now won three races in a row; rallied over a speed-favoring track to win a shorter sprint two starts back, and he ran well over this distance when coming away narrowly second-best to the talented Mo Cash at Tampa in April. CERRETALTO ran an underrated race last July in a fast-paced sprint before something went wrong in his next start, leading to a layoff; returned to easily handle a weaker field in his his first start back, and he stepped up again to post a clear-cut win last time with a new top figure; dangerous right back. EMANCIPATION took some advantage of a meltdown pace to win his career debut at a big price last summer, but he went on to back that race up pretty well despite not winning either of his next two starts; full-brother to Orb starts back with the upside. ULTIMATEENTICEMENT comes in a little slow, but he can still improve with only two starts as a 3yo, and he was a solid winner last time while putting away an odds-on favorite with new blinkers.

NINTH RACE

Wide-open Elusive Quality offers up plenty of horses to make cases for. I’ll try READY FOR RYE. He may be at his absolute best on a wet main track, but think he is better on turf than he is on dirt, and he projects for the right kind of trip in this race; turf races are few and far between, but he has always held his own on this surface, while facing some solid competition. COMMUTE returned from a layoff as a new gelding in the Shakertown and just raced on evenly late after getting in with a brief look in the stretch over soft ground; can be more forwardly-placed this time, and seven furlongs may be his best distance. KHARAFA has made his seasonal debut in this race in each of the last two years, and he ran well both times, though he may have just been using the race as a prep for longer races going forward; admirable 9yo has remained competitive right along vs. good horses. CONQUEST PANTHERA was given a nice trip and ride late time to get a look at the Dangers Hour up the inside, but he wasn’t quite good enough in that spot; this distance may suit him better.

TENTH RACE

BREEZE BURNER an unknown on turf, but he has the pedigree for it on the dam-side, and he is a fast horse on the main track; back to the right level as a threat at a price if he brings his speed over to turf. DANCETRACK hasn’t been seen since claimed for this price last October, where he turned back effectively to come up just short after getting away poorly from the gate; tough if all is well. EXCLUDED getting the right class drop for this after doing his best to try to clear his NY-bred conditions to no avail over the past year; can step forward second off the layoff after failing to get involved nine days ago at Aqueduct. FINAL CHAPTER has lost his form on the main track, and may not be able to run anymore, but he has run some fast races on turf in the past.