ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, HONOR AND COURAGE

FIRST RACE

ONE I’M RUNNING TO returns from a six-month layoff at the bottom level for winners ($12.5k claiming, N2L), for a trainer that does well with comebackers. Since spring of last year, Steve Miyadi is 5-for-12 with six-month layoffs. ONE I’M RUNNING TO is quick enough to set or press the pace under top East Coast rider Irad Ortiz, in town to ride Lady Eli in the G1 Gamely later on the card. BITTE will keep the top choice honest, while taking a negative drop following a subpar effort in a starter allowance. He has the top figures, but the steep class drop casts doubt on his current form. Can’t really like him, but respect his ability and speed. A pace meltdown would flatter class-drop closer GET OFF MY BACK. His best races have been on turf, but if the speedsters run each other into the ground, ‘BACK could nail them late. ALWAYS NEVER adds more speed; closer DR. CRABBY will pick them up late. Tough race.

SECOND RACE

MIND READER stretches out for the first time, with a running style that suggests this maiden-20 route is his to win or lose. Third in both recent sprints; he finished relatively well both times. He will be positioned in front of his two main rivals. Those are closers KITTEN’S ROYAL and RUN LIKE RHETT. The question of footing was answered by KITTEN’S ROYAL last out. First time on dirt, he rallied from last to third, only a half-length behind Passed by Paul. As a point of reference, ‘Paul defeated the top choice by nearly two lengths the time before. KITTEN’S ROYAL puts blinkers back on, and will be running late. RUN LIKE RHETT is improving. He finished third his last two starts and will be clunking along late. KENZOU’S EMPIRE figures to show speed, while SUPER STORM ran poorly last out but fits off his midfield debut two back. This is his first route.

THIRD RACE

STORMY LIBERAL won three stakes and more than $236k in five starts since he was claimed for $40k in October. The downhill horse-for-course won three straight on this course, and is a deserving favorite in this G3. He has speed but does not require the lead, and should get a perfect trip pressing/stalking from the outside. If the pace gets too hot, stretch-runner HOME RUN KITTEN has a shot first start since last July. He won a G3 on the hill in 2014; he returns with a series of sharp workouts. AMBITIOUS BREW, runner-up to the top choice last out, is a six-time winner on the hill including four stakes. EDDIE HASKELL adds heat; ROY H seems best on dirt, but he earned a monster figure (105 Beyer) last out in a N2X on the main track. He is too fast to summarily dismiss.

FOURTH RACE

The pick six begins with the most probable winner on the card. Although HONOR AND COURAGE is a six-start maiden with three straight second-place finishes, he may have turned the corner if his most recent start is an accurate indication. He chased a hot pace, battled through the lane, missed by a neck and finished more than seven lengths clear of third while earning a figure (91 Beyer) that would win most maiden races at this track. He has more speed than his main rivals, including a dropper he finished in front of in February. That rival is SONNETEER, whose drop is monumental: from the Kentucky Derby into a maiden race. SONNETEER finished second in the G2 Rebel, fourth in the G1 Arkansas Derby (two lengths behind Classic Empire) and 16th in the Kentucky Derby. He obviously has improved since the top choice beat him in winter, and will roll late. PLACIDO has upset potential, despite the outside post (12 of 12) in this mile and a sixteenth race. The debut by PLACIDO may have been better than it appears. In hindsight, the third-place finish was merely a prep. He was not asked for speed, raced wide and went evenly throughout. He adds blinkers for his second start, and is likely to produce more speed. He will have to produce speed, from his outside box.

FIFTH RACE

LADY ELI could be the shortest price on the card.

She apparently towers over this G1 turf route for fillies and mares. One-two all 10 starts, runnerup by a nose on this course in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall, her comeback in a G1 at Keeneland last month was solid. She flew home in 28.69 seconds, finished clear of third and returns to California in peak form for the second start of her 5yo campaign. However, an upset candidate lurks. SEPTEMBER STARS might be much better than her two U.S. starts suggest. She won both, and overcame trouble in both including an impressive N2X early this month. She lost position into the far turn, dropped to last, angled outside and blasted home to win by a half-length with something left at the wire. It’s a big hike from allowance to G1, but let there be no mistake about SEPTEMBER STARS. Her wicked turn of late foot gives her a shot at an outright upset. AVENGE established herself as the top female turf horse in California last fall, winning two graded stakes and culminating her campaign with an outstanding third in the BC F&M Turf. This is her first start in more than six months, but she has worked well and could have a pace advantage. If they leave her alone out front, she could be gone.

SIXTH RACE

Possibly the most competitive race on the card, this N1X sprint could go a number of ways. TEXAS TWO STEP completely misfired as the favorite last out, but two previous sprints on this track were solid. He drops from N2X to N1X/optional, enters for the $40k claim tag, puts blinkers back on, and is reunited with Victor Espinoza. BOLITA BOYZ got banged around severely at the start last time, dropped back, then rallied to third. Claimed for $40k off the possibly better-than-looked effort, his $32k claiming win two back at this sevenfurlong trip puts him in the hunt. BOY HOWDY is speed, drawn outside, and should get a good trip pushing the pace while in the clear. The horse he beat last time in a Cal-bred N1X (Jimmy Bouncer) returned to win with a 93 Beyer. Stakes-placed TAMAN GUARD runs well fresh, and appears to have worked well for his first since August. PRAY HARD finished in front of BOLITA BOYZ last out. Deep race. Tough call in this G3 filly-mare turf sprint between two good fillies. The multiple Cal-bred stakes winner ENOLA GRAY and G1 winner ILLUMINANT both have credentials to win. Perhaps the edge goes to the California-bred. ENOLA GRAY is 3-for-3 on the hill, she won both turf sprints this year by daylight margins. She has speed, can cope with a fast pace, and runs well fresh. This is her first start in more than two months. ILLUMINANT took a shot against Lady Eli and company last out in a G1 at Keeneland, but faded to seventh after setting the pace. She cuts back to a sprint, and figures to ndbe positioned right behind the speed. ANITA PARTNER might be up against it from a class perspective, but she is sharp now and moving up the ladder after a dominating N2X win. She crossed the wire first all three hillside sprints this season, and has a versatile style that allows her to press the pace or rally from last. On paper, she is not “good enough.” But she represents one of the best bets in racing: a sharp horse moving up in class, at generous odds.

EIGHTH RACE

AMERICAN FREEDOM is positioned for a pacepressing upset in the G1 Gold Cup, while late-runner FOLLOW ME CREV may also offer value in this mile and one-quarter race. But they face a formidable rival in likely favorite MIDNIGHT STORM. In a Gold Cup that might be more open than it appears, AMERICAN FREEDOM gets the nod. His comeback was better than it looks. He lost ground over a wet track at Churchill Downs, lugged out, and finished fourth while racing for the first time in more than eight months. A late supplement to this race, he puts blinkers back on, is likely to be be forwardly placed, and has earned figures that rank among the fastest in this field. The lightly raced 4yo still has upside. FOLLOW ME CREV also ran better than it appears last out. He missed some training into the G2 Californian due to quarter cracks, raced 32 feet farther than the winner, made an early move and then flattened out to finish an okay second. He trained better since, worked six furlongs last Sunday with a sharp 24-second final quarter (reportedly), and is likely to run the race of his career. Come-from-behind upset? It could happen, if MIDNIGHT STORM is vulnerable. His runner-up finish in the mile and one-quarter Big ‘Cap two starts back was good; he finished more than four lengths clear of third. In his next start, he struggled with the racing surface at Oaklawn. Back home, drawn outside the top choice, MIDNIGHT STORM enters as the “best” horse, at likely underlay odds. CUPID and ACCELERATE have run races that put them in the picture. HARD ACES will roll late.

NINTH RACE

The fourth-place debut by LUCKY SOUL was outstanding, and sets him up for a maiden win second time out. He broke awkwardly in the sprint, raced at the back, finished well and galloped out super past the finish. He ran like a colt that wants every bit of this nine-furlong distance. It is always tough to win a maiden route second time out, off just one sprint, but the debut by LUCKY SOUL hints he might be the exception. AWESOME HEIGHTS ran okay in his comeback early last month. He had to wait for room inside in the lane, and finished evenly for fifth. Not bad. Lightly raced, upside potential second start back. ZICONIC, sired by Tapit and produced by Zenyatta, will roll late. He always breaks slow, usually finishes well. OREGON finished a promising second in his initial route race and figures in the hunt.

BRAD FREE