ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MINERALOGY

FIRST RACE

MINERALOGY ran very well on debut when chasing from the outside over an inside track, and he came right back to cut a fast pace and stave off the first challenger in the stretch before getting run down by the talented Cloud Computing; has to go seven this time, but one of the firsters better be fast to keep up with him early. LUCULLAN a half to Grade 3 winner Innovative Idea from a multiple graded stakes winning dam who is a sister to Sky Mesa; not sure I love that he worked on turf, and firsters from this barn can be a tough read, but he is bred to be able to run a little. MYAKKA RIVER showed no speed and raced very greenly in a strong race on debut at GP; bred to improve with time and distance for Shug. BRITAIN a Pletcher firster who didn’t make the trip to Florida for the winter; obviously would be no surprise should he be able to run, but he is bred to go long.

SECOND RACE

CONQUEST SANDMAN improved as expected with the trainer change to Maker, and he felt really unlucky when stuck trying to rally along the inside all the way in that first one behind Siding Spring; did get loose on the lead before getting dueled down in the stretch last time, but think shorter distances may wind up being better for him. TRICKED UP an overall disappointment for Chad, and his loss two back was inexcusable after a perfect trip, but do think there is some talent in there, and he may benefit from the addition of blinkers after appearing to run in spots last time. FEARLESS DRAGON has run some okay races on dirt when properly spotted, and he didn’t exactly have a clean trip when cut all the way back for his NY debut behind a razor sharp Do Share; wish there was a little turf on the dam side of his pedigree, but he is a Speightstown, and is perfectly drawn inside. SPIN CYCLE returned from a layoff to win both of his turf starts as a 3yo with competitive figures; hard to take it as a good sign that he went right back to the sidelines after those two races, but he can go with these horses if he’s ready.

THIRD RACE

DIVINE INTERVENTIO facing horses that may be “classier” than he, but he has the advantage of being in form over a surface and distance that he likes, while that may not necessarily be the case for most of his competition; closing sprinter needs some pace, but should catch some, and the others are pretty tough to take at shorter prices. DROP SHOT improved on turf as a 3yo, but he was bet in his earlier dirt races without winning, and he may be more of a distance-specific horse than he is a surface-specific horse; like him sprinting off the layoff. WILD ABOUT DEB hasn’t sprinted since late running debut as a 2yo, and he may just be getting started here off the layoff, but he held his own vs. some good 3yos going long last year. BANCROFT HALL didn’t beat the strongest field in the world on debut, and he had a perfect trip tracking in behind the lead before getting through down there, but he won easily while just being pushed clear at the end.

FOURTH RACE

ADMIRALS COVE has to be ready on debut for trainer who isn’t much concerned with cranking them up, but he is bred (half to four turf winners and two stakes winners, dam was multiple Grade 3-placed on grass), and Donk tends to get his turf horses ready for this short AQU spring meet. FOCUS GROUP was wide and chasing in a tough spot behind blowout maiden win by Oscar Performance before just getting nailed for 2nde on the wire; can benefit from that run as he starts back for Chad.

SIEM RIEP has plenty of pedigree and a consistent series of works for trainer who in excellent with first time starters. STRONG SIDE has run well on dirt since arriving in NY, but he may be better on turf based on his two starts on that surface last year; don’t like the horse that out-dueled him in the stretch at Laurel on 11/24. CRIME LAB a half to the talented Inspector Lynley from a dam who won multiple graded stakes on turf for Shug; plenty of pedigree, but it may take a few.

FIFTH RACE

PAID ADMISSION returned from a long layoff in a tougher spot off the trainer change, and he got squeezed out to last at the start and then rated along in a race that featured a rated pace; not sure that dropping right away is the best sign for him, but he has the back races, won two-of-three starts over a one turn mile at Churchill, and can keep closer if the pace isn’t there. OLD UPSTART was no match for INDYCOTT after being rated at this level last time; has something to find vs. that horse, but he has been in improved form for trainer who has been heating up lately, and the one turn mile may suit him a little better. PRAETEREO was behind that same rated pace on 2/19 after finding improved form for this trainer through the end of last year, and he couldn’t get involved in the Stud Muffin last weekend over a wet track that didn’t do him any favors; figures competitive on the drop.

SIXTH RACE

MIGGSY stretched out to break his maiden while holding off a next-out winner, but don’t think he improved with the added distance, as his first two starts sprinting are both better than they look, and better than that effort; turns back at a price in Bay Shore lacking a real standout. LONG HAUL BAY debuted vs. his fellow NY-breds, but that race came back fast, and the figure was conformed by Horoscope in his next start (91 Beyer); steps up and has to get an added furlong, but he appears to fit right in. Race really goes through graded stakes winning 2yo THEORY as he makes his seasonal debut for Pletcher after failing to get the Spectacular Bid to fill last weekend; he was impressive the first time we saw him, but not quite so much after that, and things didn’t exactly go as planned for him last year after some issues following that debut put his campaign into question; happy making him the horse to beat, but not sure he is much of a standout.

SEVENTH RACE

Interesting race here with both CAUSE FOR SURPRISE and T LOVES A FIGHT exiting big figure wins on the inner, seemingly out of nowhere; we’ll see if one, or both, of them can back those races up. ROYAL EKATI raced greenly early on last year while flashing some potential, and liked the way he finished that maiden win off the last time we saw him, for which he was a new gelding; makes first start back after training forwardly down in Florida over the past month. BOURBON EMPIRE has shown himself not to be an effective horse routing, which is something better off learned sooner rather than later; turn back really works for colt who was impressive on both starts sprinting as a 2yo, though he has developed some troubling gate habits (not all of which can be blamed on others) which he will need to straighten out. FORMAL

START finds a tough field for the level, and may have to wait for an easier one to score, but he is better than he looks and he had a bit of a trip last time before finishing gamely for second-best.

EIGHTH RACE

HEREDITARY won three straight early on for Shug, over three different tracks, but never could quite string races together, before finally going to the sidelines for a longer break last May; has returned an improved horse at Tampa this winter, and think this added distance may for him more than it will for some of the others. Not sure I want the ones exiting the Stymie, though that is where the strength of this field seems to lie, so will also use BELLAMY WAY, who returned from a layoff with a powerful win over weaker on his favorite surface; not sure about the distance for him, but he is capable of a big effort when things go his way. SEND IT IN has run a long series of good races for Pletcher, a string that remained unbroken over the course of a long layoff following top figure win last March; did have some subtle early trouble in that Stymie before rallying to late, but that race did set up well for closers.

NINTH RACE

OCEAN KNIGHT not one of my favorites, but do wonder if they aren’t finally doling the right thing by trying to make him a sprinter; thought he went well in the General George after a slow start and a wide trip, and all of his other sprint tries, following a strong debut win where he closed down a fast pace, have come off of layoffs; will try him at a bit of price in Carter that didn’t come up nearly as strong as it could have. UNIFIED will be tough here if ready to step forward a bit off GP return where he assumed early control and held off a prepping Mind Your Biscuits late; has speed to his inside to deal with this time, but he is a talent, and may still have forward to go, which is not something that can be said for his competition. TOMMY MACHO hasn’t sprinted since maiden win back in 2015, but he is an effective one-turn horse turning back a bit out of GP mile where ho could only chase Sharp Azteca to no avail; race two back was a nice turn around in form for him, but not sure how easy it is to trust him to run another one like that.

TENTH RACE

Question surrounding the Wood is whether or not either MO TOWN and/or IRISH WAR CRY can get back to one of their good races after disappointing in their respective most recent starts. If they can we may have a horse race on our hands. If they can’t, I suspect that CLOUD COMPUTING is going to be very hard to beat. I’ll stay positive on MO TOWN for one more race, as he was too good last year to toss readily aside following Risen Star where he chased a fast early pace and gave way; do have to wonder when Dutrow will turn things around in NY, however. CLOUD COMPUTING impressed on debut when closing to win over a sprint distance, and he acquitted himself well when stepped up and stretched out in the Gotham, where he was kept close to a fast pace. BATTALION RUNNER ships up trying to be yet another Pletcher 3yo to make the Derby; suspect he will have to do better than he did in winning his two-turn debut as a heavy favorite most recently in Florida, but he is lightly-raced.

ELEVENTH RACE

NORTH END looked like a filly in need of distance when rallying late on debut, and she stretched out very effectively last time while managing to keep herself in range of a pace-setter who was trying to get some separation on her, and then running that horse over in the stretch; steps up in Gazelle lacking a standout. And, while it lacks a standout, that doesn’t mean it lacks a clear horse to beat. That horse is MISS SKY WARRIOR, already a dual graded stakes winner, which included the Grade 2 Demoiselle over this track and trip as a 2yo; there is nothing flashy about her, and she isn’t exactly fast, but she has a pleasingly tractable style and all she does is win. ASPEN HILLTOP caught a pace in her Saratoga debut, but liked the way she kicked home in the stretch to pull of the upset, and her return in the Davona Dale is best excused after being virtually eliminated at the starts; we’ll see. LOCKDOWN has looked okay for Mott winning each of her last two starts, including the Busanda while improving her figure again; not sure how short I’d be willing to go on her, but she is a contender, as is YORKIEPOO PRINCESS, who stretched out effectively last time vs. a weaker field.

TWELFTH RACE

Interested to see BUILD TO SUIT debut on the main track considering pedigree that is slanted toward grass (he’s a half to Bolo) for this trainer; suppose he could be prepping here with the turf course just opening up, but wonder if it isn’t a good sign that he starts off in this kind of race for trainer who wins with first time starters. BROKEN ENGAGEMENT had no chance with a sharp frontrunning winner on debut, especially after getting bumped back between horses at the start, and he didn’t help his own cause while racing greenly and lugging in badly through the stretch; has valuable experience in this field, and figures tough if he can straighten himself out with that first one out of the way; coupled with Chad’s SUPER LUKE, who is a half to a stakes winner and out of the Grade 1 dam Acey Deucey. MONEY LAUNDERING also debuts for a trainer who can win first out, and he is out of a winning dam who is a sister to the Grade 1 sprinter Hilda’s Passion.