Virual analysis shows COVID-19 plateauing, officials report

Viral analysis of material in Los Angeles County's wastewater systems appears to show a general plateauing of COVID-19 in the community, health officials said Friday, noting that the analysis helps counter the lack of comprehensive virus-testing results as residents increasingly use at-home tests.

The county has been reporting downward trends in positive tests and virus transmission for weeks while also conceding that the infection numbers are incomplete because of the prevalence of athome testing, the results of which are not generally reported to health authorities.

To counter that shortcoming, the county has been monitoring concentrations of COVID-19 detected in four wastewater systems. The two largest systems have seen declines for most of September, although one of them reported a small increase in the past week. Two smaller systems have reported mostly stable viral concentrations, with slight increases in recent days.

The indication of plateauing COVID-19 concentrations could indicate that transmission of the virus is no longer decreasing in the county, according to the Department of Public Health.

But health officials said all other monitoring efforts still indicate a low level of concern, and they “remain hopeful that transmission is not increasing at this time.”

Most metrics in the county continue to decline, with DPH reporting a seven-day average of 1,297 new daily cases this week, down 8% from a week ago.

But county officials remain wary of another winter surge in infections, similar to those that occurred the past two years.

County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said this week that a resurgence of the flu also could occur this winter after two years of low infection numbers. She encouraged residents again Friday to ensure they are up to date on flu shots and COVID-19 vaccines.

“Both flu and COVID-19 are likely to infect more people when the days are shorter, and the temperatures are cooler,” Ferrer said in a statement. “This is both because people spend more time indoors where respiratory virus can accumulate and jump more easily from person to person and because cooler weather allows the flu and SARS-CoV-2 virus particles to linger longer in the air and travel further, potentially infecting airways that have lower defenses.

“And while we don't have certainty on what this winter will be like, including how much of a surge in COVID and flu we are likely to have,” Ferrer added, “we do know that as the cooler weather sets in and cases rise, the risks will increase for some people more than others.”

Those with increased risk, she said, include older residents, those with other health problems, people who are exposed more to the virus and folks who are not yet vaccinated.

“As we prepare for the upcoming holidays, one strategy for reducing risk for those most vulnerable for bad outcomes should they become infected, is for everyone, including those at lower risk, to get the fall COVID bivalent booster and the flu vaccine soon,” Ferrer said. “This is because those at lower risk, including children, can easily transmit both flu and COVID to those more vulnerable.”

The county reported 1,682 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, raising the cumulative total from throughout the pandemic to 3,456,407. Six more virus-related deaths were also reported, giving the county an overall death toll of 33,603.

The average rate of people testing positive for the virus was 4.3% as of Friday.

There were 496,499 coronavirus-positive patients in county hospitals as of Friday, according to state figures, down slightly from 499 the previous day. Of those patients, 64 were being treated in intensive care, up from 59 on Thursday.

County officials have said about 43% of patients with COVID-19 were actually hospitalized because of virus-related illness, while the rest were admitted for other reasons, with some only learning they were infected when they were tested upon admission.