At 71, Belichick has fallen and can’t get up
Is it game, set and match for Bill Belichick in New England? After reaching a new low in the post-Tom Brady era with a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Week 4, Belichick hit yet another new low last week with a 34-0 loss to the Saints at Gillette Stadium that dropped the struggling Patriots to 1-4.
The question of who was more responsible for the Patriots’ success during the Brady era — Belichick or Brady — has been settled for a while. Belichick is 26-29 (straight up and against the spread) since Brady left the Patriots after the 2019 season, with one playoff appearance in 2021. Brady was 32-18 (5-2 in the playoffs) in three seasons with the Buccaneers and clinched the argument when he won Super Bowl LV in his first season with the Bucs in 2020.
At the end of the Brady era, Belichick was virtually unquestioned as the best coach in NFL history. He had an incomparable run with nine Super Bowl appearances and six championships from 2001 to ’18, plus 330 regular-season victories (second all-time behind Don Shula’s 347) and a record 31 playoff victories.
They can never take those away from him, but the sheen of that legendary status is starting to fade just a little bit as the 71-year-old Belichick looks more like Phil Jackson running the Knicks since Brady left.
Now, the coach who replaced Drew Bledsoe with Brady can’t even get the quarterback right. Mac Jones, who made the Pro Bowl (as an alternate) as a rookie in 2021, has regressed every year — from a 92.5 passer rating in 2021 to 84.8 in 2022 to 74.2 this season after back-to-back games of 39.9 and 30.5 against the Cowboys and Saints.
Jones was replaced by Bailey Zappe after the Patriots trailed 31-0 in the fourth quarter against the Saints. But Belichick said Jones will start Sunday against the Raiders.
Belichick deserves to exit gracefully — whenever that is — but after losing 72-3 in back-to-back games, all bets could be off in New England. The Patriots’ only victory this season is against the Jets, whom Belichick has beaten 15 consecutive times.
Belichick faces former Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels and former quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday against the Raiders. That doesn’t bode well for Belichick, who has lost seven of his last 10 games against former assistants. And the only time he faced Garoppolo — against the 49ers in 2020 — the Patriots lost 33-6.
Pick: Raiders 20, Patriots 13.
VIKINGS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Vikings by 2½. Total: 44½. Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 1-4/1-3-1; Bears 1-4/1-3-1.
Outlook: Bears have a long way to go, but coming off two impressive offensive games and a 40-20 upset of the Commanders, this is a good spot for them — facing an upstreaming, Justin Jefferson-less Vikings team that also can’t win the close ones. Pick: Bears 26, Vikings 23 (OT).
COMMANDERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Falcons by 2½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 2-3/ 2-3; Falcons 3-2/1-4.
Outlook: The Commanders have lost three straight, including a 40-20 loss to the Bears, and have allowed 144 points in their last four games (36.0 average). But Ron Rivera has a knack for getting his team to rally in spots like this, especially against a beatable foe.
Pick: Commanders 24, Falcons 17.
COLTS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jaguars by 4½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 3-2/3-2; Jaguars 3-2/3-2.
Outlook: The Jaguars are on a high after back-to-back victories over the Falcons (23-7) and Bills (25-20) in London but might be due for a letdown back in the States. Likely Gardner Minshew revenge game.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 17.
49ERS at BROWNS
Time: Noon.
Line: 49ers by 6½. Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 5-0/4-1; Browns 2-2/2-2.
Outlook: With Kyle Shanahan pushing all the right buttons, the 49ers and Brock Purdy look like the class of the NFL right now — so good that you have to ride this train until it stops. The Browns are coming off a bye.
Pick: 49ers 31, Browns 23.
SEAHAWKS at BENGALS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 3-1/3-1; Bengals 2-3/1-3-1.
Outlook: Joe Burrow was back to his old self last week, but the Seahawks are tough on the road, beating the Lions and Giants already this season. Pete Carroll is 26-7 SU/22-9-2 ATS in the Eastern time zone since 2012. Pick: Bengals 26, Seahawks 24.
SAINTS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Saints by 1½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 3-2/1-3-1; Texans 2-3/3-2.
Outlook: Alvin Kamara’s return seemed to take the Saints to another level in a 34-0 rout of the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. With QB Derek Carr, Kamara, WR Michael Thomas and the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, they might be better than people think. Pick: Saints 17, Texans 14.
PANTHERS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 13½. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 0-5/0-4-1; Dolphins 4-1/4-1.
Outlook: Huge mismatch on paper between one of the best teams in the NFL and arguably the worst. It’s a big number, but the Dolphins already have proved they know how to pour it on. And Vic Fangio defenses can make things tough on rookie quarterbacks.
Pick: Dolphins 42, Panthers 17.
CARDINALS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 1-4/3-2; Rams 2-3/3-1-1.
Outlook: The Cardinals look like they’re running out of spunk. After covering their first three and taking a 14-10 lead over the Bengals, they lost 34-20. Rams’ losses are to the 49ers (30-23), Bengals (19-16) and Eagles (23-14). Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 21.
EAGLES at JETS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 5-0/3-1-1;
Jets 2-3/3-2.
Outlook: Robert Saleh’s Jets are game but could be due for a letdown after a road victory over Sean Payton’s Broncos last week. The unbeaten Eagles have not been dominant but look like they’re just getting started.
Pick: Eagles 23, Jets 10.
GIANTS at BILLS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Bills by 14. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 1-5/0-5; Bills 3-2/3-2.
Outlook: Daniel Jones and the Giants are facing the wrong team at the wrong place at the wrong time. The Bills are smarting after a tough week of overseas travel and a loss to the better-acclimated Jaguars in London. Pick: Bills 34, Giants 17.