Forecast makes Kentucky Derby more unpredictable
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Bob Baffert times three. In a Kentucky Derby lacking a dominant favorite, the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer will saddle the top three horses — at least in the assessment of oddsmakers, if not Baffert.
Game Winner is the prerace favorite, albeit a tepid one at 9-2, for what could be a wet first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Improbable and Roadster were installed as the co-second choices at 5-1.
“Last year we came in here with Justify,” Baffert said, “and we knew it was my race to lose.”
The 19-horse field for the 145th Kentucky Derby reflects the prep season leading to the opening leg of the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing: No one horse commanded the attention.
“There are a lot of good horses in here,” Baffert said. “They’re a pretty evenly matched group.”
The picture was scrambled again when initial favorite Omaha Beach was scratched Wednesday evening because of a breathing problem, dealing a devastating blow to 68-year-old trainer Richard Mandella, whose Hall of Fame résumé lacks only a Kentucky Derby victory.
That prompted the early odds to be redone. The race also lost 30-1 shot Haikal on Friday after the colt was scratched due to an infected left front foot.
“This is a crazy game, and anything can happen,” said Bret Calhoun, who trains By My Standards. “We just have to hold our breaths until we get there.”
Post time is at 6:50 p.m. EDT, with NBC’s coverage from Churchill Downs beginning at 2:30.
War of Will benefited slightly from Haikal’s scratch. He won’t have to start in the No. 1 post, which will be left vacant. The field will break from posts 2 through 20.
A win by any of Baffert’s trio would tie him with the late Ben Jones for the most Kentucky Derby victories with six. He would become the first trainer to win the race in consecutive years twice. He had back-toback winners with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998.
Last year’s Kentucky Derby was the rainiest on record, and
Justify covered the sloppy 1 1/4mile track in 2 minutes, 4.20 seconds, finishing 2 1/2 lengths ahead of Good Magic. Today’s forecast calls for a 90 percent chance of rain and a high of 66 degrees.
It sure looks like anybody’s soggy race this time.
“It’s whoever gets the trip,” Baffert said. “Especially now that it’s going to rain, we don’t know what is going to happen. It’s too bad the weather is not going to work with us.”
Game Winner finished second to Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby in early April. Roadster’s only loss in four career starts is to Game Winner. Improbable went 3-0 last year, including a win on the Churchill Downs dirt, and finished second in last month’s Arkansas Derby.
A victory by any of the four California-based horses would surely boost the struggling industry in the state, where a spate of 23 horse deaths over three months at Santa Anita triggered a raft of medication and safety rules changes that are affecting the rest of the sport. Every horse in the Kentucky Derby, except Japan-bred Master Fencer, will run on Lasix, the anti-bleeding medication allowed on race day in the United States. Churchill Downs and the other Triple Crown tracks recently announced the drug will be banned starting in 2021.
The Triple Crown trail continues with the Preakness Stakes on May 18 at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore and the Belmont Stakes on June 8 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.
Baffert touted undefeated Florida Derby winner Maximum Security as the horse that should be the Kentucky Derby favorite.
“He’s a horse that nobody is talking about and that’s a horse that I’m worried about,” he said. “He’s run faster than we have.”
Gary and Mary West have two shots at their first Kentucky Derby victory because they own both Game Winner and Maximum Security.
The other trainers besides Baffert with multiple starters are Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher. Mott, second on the list for most wins by a trainer in all races at Churchill Downs, will saddle Tacitus and Country House in pursuit of his first Kentucky Derby win in a Hall of Fame career.
Pletcher has gone under the radar with two 30-1 shots: Spinoff and Cutting Humor, whose new rider is Mike Smith. The Hall of Fame jockey picked up the mount Friday after his original horse, Omaha Beach, was scratched. Smith earned his first Kentucky Derby win aboard 50-1 shot Giacomo in 2005. He was on Justify for all three victories in the horse’s Triple Crown run last year.