SIX U.S. SENATE RACES TO OBSESS ABOUT
Elections for the U.S. Senate get less attention compared with the House, where control is likely to change hands, based on the latest polls. The odds that Democrats can pull this off in the Senate are maybe only about 25 percent.
This is about arithmetic and geography; 26 of the 35 Senate seats up this year are held by Democrats, with five in heavily Republican states. Republicans currently have a 51-49 advantage.
Still, it’s not far-fetched to think that Democrats could hold all but one or two of their seats and pick up two or three Republican seats; they need a net gain of two for control.
Twelve weeks before Election Day, I think there are a half-dozen bellwether Senate races:
Florida: This will be the mother of all Senate races with the three-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson up against Republican Gov. Rick Scott.
Scott, a thoroughly mediocre governor, is a shrewd campaigner with very deep pockets. Nelson, a competent senator, isn’t an exciting candidate.
Democrats note, however, that Scott won his governor’s races by very small margins in 2010 and 2014. Democrats note that Scott has spent $20 million this summer attacking Nelson without moving the needle. They also believe that the electorate, fueled by a fast-growing Latino population, will be as much as five points more Democratic than the the last time Scott ran.
North Dakota: This is the top Republican target, where Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is facing a difficult challenge from Rep. Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state. Trump carried North Dakota by better than 2-to-1.
Heitkamp is an independent-minded politician who has overcome big odds. Cramer, notes Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, “is not a perfect candidate but he’s better than any she’s faced before.” The race may hinge on whether Trump’s tariffs, which are clobbering some farmers, are a major factor in November.
Arizona: Along with Nevada, this is Democrats’ top target for a takeover with Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a libertarian-leaning moderate Democrat. There’s a bitter Republican primary later this month with mainstream conservative Rep. Martha McSally facing two right-wingers, one the infamous Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
If either of them wins, this is a slam dunk for Sinema.
Missouri: Months ago Republicans were confident they’d unseat two-term Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in a state that has moved steadily their way. They had recruited 38-year-old Attorney General Josh Hawley, a “golden boy” candidate with glittering credentials and support from both establishment and Trump conservatives.
But Hawley has been a lackluster candidate and has been ensnared in some mini-scandals. McCaskill may be helped by ballot initiatives on legalizing marijuana for medical purposes, raising the minimum wage and reforming redistricting — measures that will bring out more likely Democratic voters.
Indiana: The state has moved right since Joe Donnelly, a moderate Democrat, was elected six years ago. Republicans were cheered when businessman Mike Braun blew away two incumbent U.S. House members in the primary.
There is a question now whether Braun was fully vetted in the Republican contest, and a Democratic poll shows Hoosiers evenly divided now on Trump.
Tennessee: A state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic senator since Al Gore in 1990 wasn’t even on the radar until late last year when incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Corker announced his retirement and popular former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen surprisingly jumped into the race.
He’s running against right-wing U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn. The key may be whether Republicans can paint Bredesen as a left-winger and tie him to Chuck Schumer, or whether voters remember his impressive record as governor, which ended eight years ago.