Markey looks stronger as election nears
Got boost after Pelosi endorsed Joe Kennedy
Ed Markey’s got the momentum. He’s got the money. He’s even got the “Markeyverse” — the dozens of fan accounts run by web-savvy Gen Z-ers that are dominating the online space.
With just 10 days to go until the final votes are cast, political watchers say there’s a real chance the 74year-old incumbent, forced into an underdog campaign against a 39year-old challenger from the state’s premier political dynasty, can pull off what no candidate has done before — beat a Kennedy in Massachusetts.
“I never would have predicted it when Kennedy first announced,” Boston University professor and political historian Thomas Whalen said.
But Markey’s “like the 2004 Red Sox against the Yankees, down three games to nothing,” Whalen said. “This is the political story of the year, at least in Massachusetts. And it will go down as one of the great comebacks if he can pull it off.”
It’s a strange position for an incumbent to be in. But the consensus when U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy III barnstormed his way into the race last September with a double-digit lead was that Markey, a creature of Washington with relatively low name recognition, stood little chance against the well-liked descendant of powerful senators and a beloved president.
A year later, most recent polling shows the senator and his primary challenger neck-and-neck. An internal poll from Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse’s congressional campaign showed Markey leading Kennedy by a sizable margin among those who already cast ballots — a stat of little surprise to the campaigns or to analysts who say Markey’s
more fervently Democratic, more white and more affluent base was likely to vote earlier.
“Markey by all counts was winning among early voters,” Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said. “The question is how big of a lead and whether or not Kennedy can turn the tables.”
Markey’s also pulled ahead in the money race. After being out-paced two quarters in a row, Markey edged Kennedy last quarter and flatly out-raised him in the preprimary period that ended Aug. 12, bringing in $1.4 million to the challenger’s $929,015, Federal Election Commission reports show. He spent less than Kennedy and had double the cash on hand in the final days before Sept. 1.
When Kennedy landed a plum endorsement from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week, Markey reacted graciously. Former Massachusetts Democratic Party Chairman Phil Johnston said Pelosi’s backing “is very helpful for Joe, because she’s the face of the Democrats in Congress.” Kennedy’s camp believes it will help him among undecided women voters.
But the endorsement rankled progressives and ultimately led Markey to raise quadruple the money off the announcement than his opponent, according to the campaigns.
Markey’s supporters sense there’s a real chance the Green New Deal co-author, who’s emerged as a beacon for progressives and, more surprisingly, young people, could actually pull off the win.
“I think it’s especially possible this time because he has a much stronger record than his opponent,” said state Rep. Nika Elugardo, D-Jamaica Plain. “We’ve gotten the word out about that we can’t afford to lose Ed Markey — now or ever.”
Markey is barreling down the home stretch with the winds of the recent progressive wins that have toppled incumbents nationwide at his back.
His campaign manager, John Walsh, knows it’s a turn of events “no one believed could happen.”
“It’s a close race and we really need to keep working,” Walsh said. “But there is some momentum.”
The winner of the contentious primary will very much hinge on turnout that — with nearly 1 million ballots already mailed out and early voting available for the first time in the state primaries due to the pandemic — is almost entirely unpredictable.
Walsh believes the Markey campaign can mobilize their young and environmentalist supporters. Kennedy’s team is focusing on Black and brown communities and working people who tend to vote in-person and later.
“We’re very confident we’re going to win. But undoubtedly it’s a tight race,” Kennedy spokeswoman Emily Kaufman said. “What happens in the next 10 days in terms of who turns out and who votes is going to be the driving factor.”
Markey’s biggest challenge will be holding onto his momentum in the waning days of an increasingly volatile race.
“What’s clear about this political environment is momentum changes every 24 hours,” Boston-based Democratic strategist Wilnelia Rivera said. “Regardless of what momentum looks like today, you’ve got to create a plan that assumes you can lose it.”