Joe Biden could get a boost from South Carolina
Here’s my take on handicapping the candidates in Saturday’s South Carolina vote and in the Super Tuesday sweeps that follow March 3.
I don’t need a poll to assess how my fellow African Americans will vote in any part of this country. The highly esteemed South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn’s heartfelt endorsement for “my good friend, my late wife’s great friend,” Joe Biden, included the powerful summary: “We know Joe. But more importantly, he knows us.”
Clyburn’s approval of Biden will definitely be hard to overcome in South Carolina’s African American community, and will no doubt resonate to different degrees throughout the South. Clyburn, the highest-ranking black Democrat in Congress, could deliver a muchneeded save for the flailing Biden campaign. Already Florida shows Biden topping the polls there. There is a lot of respect and residual good will for Biden for his service as vice president to America’s first black president, Barack Obama. Biden is also showing more fight, tightening up his all-important ground support in states about to vote.
I’m not sure that Biden will regain the lead from “burnin’ ” Bernie Sanders, who really has created a movement among young people. If those same young people actually go out and vote, Bernie will be tough to take down. I foresee a bruising dogfight all the way to November with President Trump parachuting in from time to time to throw shade, brick bats, taunting tweets and otherwise beat the drums on disunity among the Democrats.
I have to admit that I am baffled by Tom Steyer’s third place standing in South Carolina. At first I thought it was some kind of joke, but that was before the recent debate there, during which the erstwhile do-gooder billionaire was called out for his investment in for-profit prisons — the ones whose very existence depends on keeping folks, mostly black and brown, locked up indefibumpy nitely. After all, there’s money to be made from the outrageous number of blacks in the prison system. Tom’s answer: “I bought stock in a prison company thinking they’d do a better job, and I investigated that, and I sold it.” After it was worth $90M, I might add.
I see South Carolina as
Biden’s to lose, but I believe Bernie or Elizabeth Warren won’t be too far behind in the Palmetto State, or other Super Tuesday states — even among those with a preponderance of black voters.
I see Elizabeth, Joe and Bernie as the trio to beat, swaying back and forth on a road full of potholes and detours. I would suggest Warren move away from incessant Mike Bloomberg bashing that is starting to get repetitive and focus on developing and refining a stronger Southern strategy. Warren has been consistent in calling out and supporting our historically black colleges, which are in deep trouble and need serious help. Hopefully, she has a plan for saving these vital institutions of higher learning. Warren has called out the criminal justice system as racist — no doubt paying a deep price among police unions in terms of support. Maybe she can harness the backing of criminal justice advocates, especially those on the ground in the South, like social justice activist Bryan Stevenson of “Just Mercy” fame, who work to change that paradigm. She was also one of the first candidates to support reparations.
Back here in Massachusetts, a Super Tuesday state, Warren should get a boost from the Boston Globe endorsement. Warren leads Amy Klobuchar by about 10 points in the latest polls. Amy has called Warren and
Sanders the least productive members of the Senate. Loyalty is an important element in political races.
Liz should win the Bay State and could even snip off a sizable vote in Bernie’s home state of Vermont. If she loses Massachusetts, she will be riding the fallout from that for the rest of her campaign. I see Pete Buttigieg as a wild card in Massachusetts, the first state to enact marriage equality in 2004, and in Vermont Buttigieg has the potential of also cutting Liz off a bit at the pass. I also wouldn’t discount former New York neighbor, former Mayor Bloomberg from getting a thin slice of the electorate pie.
In the final analysis, I believe the electorate will not be duped by empty rhetoric and millions of dollars worth of commercials and assorted “smoke and mirror” tactics. They will vote their interests and for those who have a track record or the best, most workable plan for solving our problems.