ANALYSTS: 'TIS THE SEASON TO BE JOLLY FOR RETAILERS
The stage is set for a healthy holiday shopping season — beginning with today’s Black Friday — thanks to a growing economy and improved consumer confidence, especially in the Northeast, analysts said.
Hitting the stores last night, shoppers agreed.
“I got a job this year, so I have a little bit of extra money,” said Jonathan Silva of Brockton, who was in line for his first Black Friday, at the Lynn Walmart, hours before it was to open at 1 a.m., to get a Playstation 4 and “Assassin’s Creed.” “I feel great about it. It’s exciting!”
Analysts are expecting a strong shopping blitz between now and Christmas, largely because of a steadily improving economy spurring consumers’ increasing willingness to spend money.
“The economy looks like it has strong momentum going into the holiday season,” economists at Wells Fargo wrote in a research note. “Consumers, retailers and businesses should all be in a fairly festive mood this year.”
IHS Markit is projecting a 4.2 percent growth in sales above last year, the strongest growth rate since 2014.
“Consumer spending continues to be supported by elevated levels of confidence and solid gains in employment, real disposable income, and household net worth,” IHS executive director Chris Christopher wrote in a research note.
Unemployment has remained low, and average income has shown signs of finally starting to rise steadily. Consumer confi-
dence is at its highest since 2000.
The Northeast is expected to see sales growth higher than the rest of the country, according to an analysis from the Electronic Transactions Association, a trade group for the payments industry.
“The economy is doing very well in the Northeast in comparison to a lot of other regions,” said Jason Oxman, chief executive of the ETA. “Compared to other regions of the country, there are no major weather or natural disaster impacts on consumers getting out and going shopping.”
Oxman said the ETA also is projecting a strong increase in spending on vacations and getaways, which will help the region.
In Massachusetts, local retailers — including small and independent businesses — are counting a strong season to finish out the year.
“There’s a lot of competition out there, particularly growing competition online, and costs are going up,” said Jon Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts.
Hurst said his organization is expecting a 3.1 percent increase in sales this year, and expects numbers to be buoyed by a strong economy combined with a favorable calendar.
“We think the sales are going to be well up over last year,” Hurst said. “You have five full weekends this year, a full complement of weekends.”
For all the focus on Black Friday, retailers are already in the midst of the holiday shopping season. Brick and mortar stores — and most retailers — have already made some of their best deals available in an effort to combat Amazon’s iron grip on the season. That means many shoppers have already scooped up at least some of the gifts they will store away for the holidays.
“We’re seeing a huge expansion of the Black Friday shopping period backward,” Oxman said. “This year we’re actually projecting spending growth in November will outpace December.”
Retailers are expected to highlight their usual slate of televisions, computers and outdoor equipment as well as hot tech gadgets, with voice assistants expected to be pushed heavily. Amazon’s Echo Dot will be on sale for just $30, while the Google Home Mini will be $29.
Brandon Grissom came to the GameStop at the Mall at Rockingham Park in Salem, N.H., which opened at 6 p.m. yesterday, to get a deal on a new Xbox.
“My other one broke,” he said. “It’s usually around $250, but it’s $199 right now. This is my fourth year coming out for Black Friday. I just like to get the deals and maybe do a little Christmas shopping.”