GDP rebounding from covid

The U.S. gross domestic product grew 33.1% from the second quarter this year, making up nearly all the ground lost to impacts of the covid-19 pandemic in the second quarter, according to the October report from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The report is one of the most widely anticipated and scrutinized due to its timing, which every four years puts it just days before the presidential election.

“This is quite an impressive rebound from the 31.4% decline in real GDP in the covid-interrupted second quarter,” economist John Anderson said.

“However, it is important to recognize that the big percentage gain in GDP from the second quarter drop is not the same thing as a full recovery from the covid shock.”

Anderson is head of the agricultural economics and agribusiness department for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture and the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural Food and Life Sciences. He has been providing pandemic-related analyses of the economy since March.

“The aggregate economy remains smaller than it was pre-covid, something that’s clear with a look at the raw numbers,” he said.

The third quarter GDP amounted to $18.584 trillion.

“By way of pre-covid comparison, real GDP in 2019 amounted to $19.092 trillion,” Anderson said. “The economy, therefore, remains about 2.7% below its 2019 level: A strong recovery over a short time frame, to be sure, but not yet a full recovery.”

CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING

Anderson said consumer spending “increased sharply in the third quarter on both goods and services, with the largest gains on durable goods."

He contintued: "For the most part, spending on goods, both durable and non-durable, has eclipsed pre-covid levels by a significant margin.”

Spending on services increased in the third quarter but was still lower than pre-pandemic levels. Transportation, recreation and food services plus accommodations “are still a long way from a full recovery despite a strong third quarter rebound,” he said.

Pandemic-induced work-from-home culture did help one sector: software and information processing equipment.

“Both are now larger than they were before the pandemic,” Anderson said. “Given the investments throughout the economy on remote communication capabilities, that should not be too surprising.”

Even though the economy remains For other covid-related economic analyses, people may visit https://bit.ly/AR-Ag-EcoImpacts2020.

To learn more about extension and research programs in Arkansas, visit https://division.uaex.edu/. Follow the agency on Twitter at @AgInArk, @uaex_ edu or @ArkAgResearch.