Offense soars but defense still wins
CHICAGO — Scoring is up in the NFL — way up after the first month of the season — and that’s challenging again the notion that defense wins championships.
The Chicago Bears joined the arms race in earnest in January, when they paired Coach Matt Nagy with second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky, and went full throttle in overhauling skill positions to inject life into one of the league’s most listless offenses.
They exploded for 48 points in a blowout of the Buccaneers last week as Trubisky fired six touchdown passes and the offense moved up and down the field. It was reflective of what’s happening around the league, which is on pace to shatter season records for points and touchdown passes.
Teams have combined to score 3,030 points for an average of 24.2 per game, almost a point above the all-time high set in 2013. The 228 touchdown passes are 23 more than the previous high through four weeks, also from 2013. If it keeps up, significant individual season records also could fall.
More offense is one reason to explain better television ratings a year after the NFL hit an eight-year low for scoring. The Eagles and Patriots combined for 1,151 yards in Super Bowl LII — a record for any NFL game, regular season or postseason — and offenses have picked up where those teams left off.
As defensive coordinators work overtime, poring over game film to come up with solutions for college-influenced offenses that are also taking advantage of shifts in the rulebook, quarterbacks are flourishing. The average passer rating through four weeks is 94.4 — 7.5 points higher than last year and well ahead of the all-time high of 90.2 from 2015.
Can the old way of thinking about defense and what leads to success in January still apply?
“A lot of clubs talk like it, but they’re really not committed to it because so many teams are into this whole offensive-coordinator-tied-to-the-quarterback thing,” one senior NFL personnel man said Thursday. “But the real teams that really understand that defenses can win championships are always working to build their defense.
“Now don’t get me wrong: The quarterback is important, and you’ve got to have that. But I am telling you, when it comes down to it, you could have a great quarterback, but if he’s scared in that pocket, from the Tom Bradys on down to the Mitch Trubiskys, they don’t like that. The Bears have committed to that, and they’re doing that.”
The addition of outside linebacker Khalil Mack has elevated the Bears, who lead the league with 18 sacks and are pressuring quarterbacks like they haven’t done since the remnants of the Buddy Ryan defense in the late 1980s.
Mack was named NFC defensive player of the month for September. He’s tied for second in the league with five sacks and has forced a fumble in each game to go with his interception return for a touchdown in Green Bay. He’s an early leader for defensive player of the year, and it’s not crazy to think he could be considered for MVP if he remains healthy and productive. A defensive player hasn’t won that award since Giants outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986, and 10 of the last 11 MVPs have been quarterbacks.
Since 1984, only five teams have won the Super Bowl with a defense that wasn’t in the top 10 in scoring: the 2012 Ravens (12th), 2011 Giants (25th), 2009 Saints (20th), 2007 Giants (17th) and 2006 Colts (23rd). Yes, it’s premature to talk about the Bears and the Super Bowl this season. They have a lot of growing to do on offense, and Nagy has said as much.
But when you project over the next couple of seasons, the Bears have acquired cornerstone players to not only build with, but also win with, and a 27-year-old Mack in the prime of his career will elevate everyone on a defense that now boasts quality depth at all three levels.
No one disputes that quarterbacks are the most important players on every roster. But the second-most important is the pass rusher, and skyrocketing pay for proven sack masters — Mack is the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player, averaging $23.5 million per year — bears that out.
With quarterbacks enjoying new heights of success — the leaguewide completion percentage is 65.5, significantly ahead of the record of 63.0 — disrupting the quarterback in the pocket and scaring every passer from Brady to Trubisky is paramount.
The Bears can do that, and they have the defense that should put them in the championship hunt for years to come.