A magical mystery tour
Imagine a world in which the Middle East is not descending into carnage and chaos but is on the brink of a monumental series of breakthroughs. In this world, Iran’s nuclear program has been secured and Egypt has become a liberal democracy. Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has stepped aside. And Israelis and Palestinians have settled on the terms for a Palestinian state.
This is the world that John Kerry inhabited as he shuttled across the world last week, a fantastical realm created by his vision of what he can accomplish as Secretary of State. Meanwhile, on this planet, aid agencies reported starvation and an outbreak of polio in Syria, Egypt’s last elected president was put on trial, Israeli and Palestinian leaders described their U.S.-brokered peace talks as broken, and France’s foreign minister suggested the wouldbe accord with Iran was “a fool’s game.”
On Nov. 3 in Cairo, Kerry announced that “the road map [to democracy in Egypt] is being carried out to the best of our perception,” after failing even to mention the politicized prosecution of deposed president Mohammed Morsi.
On Nov. 5, Kerry offered the following explanation of why the Syrian peace conference he’s pushing will succeed: “The Assad regime knows full well that the purpose of” the conference is “the installation of a provisional government.” And “the Syrian government has accepted to come to Geneva.” It apparently follows that Assad will show up and placidly agree to hand over power.
His next stop was devoted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, both of whom said the negotiations Kerry persuaded them to begin in July had gone nowhere. Not to worry, said Kerry: “I am convinced from my conversations” with them “that this is not mission impossible; this can happen.”
All this was all before his weekend trip to Geneva for what became a failed attempt to close a deal with Iran on its nuclear program. Kerry’s conclusion: “I can tell you, without any reservations, we made significant progress.”
To those outside the Kerry bubble, Egypt is ruled by a regime more repressive than any in decades. Syria is mired in an anarchic struggle whose most likely winners appear to be Assad and al-Qaida. Israelis and Palestinians are further apart on the terms for a settlement than they were at the turn of the century. And the emerging conditions for a deal with Iran threaten to drive a wedge between the United States and some of its closest allies.
Desperate for a legacy at the end of his long career, the former senator has convinced himself that the terms for a settlement are readily apparent, and he has the political skills to convince Netanyahu and Abbas to accept them.
If any one of Kerry’s dreams comes true, the world would be better off. If not, this secretary of state will be remembered as a self-deceiving bumbler—and his successor will have some large messes to clean up.