This could be the start of something
Metrics say 10-2 Lobos could get on a roll over the next month
Getting a rivalry win over the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday was a big enough task for the UNM Lobos.
The fact that the 69-62 win was No. 10 for the Lobos in just 12 games, and that reaching 10 wins by Dec. 14 is the third earliest on the calendar the program has ever reached the double-figure wins mark, was all secondary for the team.
“Right now it was just the next game,” coach Paul Weir said. “I didn’t mention a sweep, a rivalry, or anything the entire time. It was mostly (about final) exams and then preparation for the next game. I didn’t want us to get overly emotional. I think we’re a good basketball team, and I think our biggest obstacle is ourselves. So,
I wanted to eliminate that, go out focus on the schematics of the game and just try and win a basketball game. I think in time we’ll appreciate those things or think about them, but right now it’s really was just getting the last win and the next win.”
If looking too far ahead isn’t his thing, Weir might not want to stop reading here.
Helped, of course, by the college basketball season starting in the first week of November in recent years, the Lobos (10-2) have reached 10 wins earlier on the calendar than Dec. 14 just twice, and both when the Lobos jumped out to 10-0 starts: Dec. 8, 2012, (UNM went 29-6 that season, won the Mountain West and was a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament) and Dec. 12, 2009, (UNM went 30-5, won the Mountain West and was a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament).
Suggesting this team is the same as either of those two that are already cemented as two of the all-time winningest in program history is far too premature. Yet there is reason to think the wins aren’t about to stop just yet.
UNM hadn’t reached 10 wins by the end of December in either of Weir’s first two seasons or in any of Craig Neal’s four seasons as coach.
Per KenPom.com, the Lobos are favored to win their next nine games. That would leave them 19-2 heading into a Jan. 25 showdown at Nevada, which happens to be coached by Steve Alford, the coach of those other those 2009-10 and 2012-13 UNM teams mentioned above.
Of course, just because KenPom.com’s computers on Sunday predict the Lobos are in line to rattle off nine more wins in a row, which would be a 14-game win streak, doesn’t make it so.
In fact, heading into the season, KenPom.com predicted the Lobos to be 8-4 at this point with losses to Auburn and UTEP (games the Lobos did lose) and also losses at New Mexico State on Nov. 21 (UNM won 78-77) and to Wisconsin on Nov. 26 in Brooklyn (UNM won 59-50).
For the season, KenPom’s win probabilities for the rest of the UNM regular season predict the Lobos going 23-8 before any Mountain West tournament or other potential postseason tournament games are played.
MOUN-TEN WEST: Through Saturday’s games, the Mountain West was one of just two conferences among 32 Division I conferences nationally that had three teams with 10 or more wins. And there were just two others that even had two 10-win teams.
In the MWC, it’s No. 25 San Diego State (10-0), Utah State (10-2) and UNM (10-2).
The other league with three teams already at the 10-win mark through Saturday was the West Coast Conference with No. 6 Gonzaga (111), Saint Mary’s (10-2) and Santa Clara (10-2). On Sunday, Pacific won at home to improve to 10-3 giving the league now four teams with double digit victories.
The next closest teams in the MWC to 10 wins are Nevada (7-4) and Colorado State (7-6).
NO TV: Yes, many televisions now support streaming from a Wifi connection. But, by definition, Tuesday’s Grand Canyon at UNM game in the Pit will be the Lobos’ sixth home game this season out of eight that won’t be televised.
The game can be seen on www.TheMW.com/ watch, which can be viewed through an online stream on most television sets, but it isn’t considered a television broadcast unless it is, actually, a television broadcast.
UNM’s first four home games this season were also on TheMW.com, and its Dec. 4 home game against Boise State was streamed on Stadium’s Facebook feed.
The Dec. 22 and 29 Lobo home games will also be available online only.