Group Says U.S. Obesity Will Swell by 2030

Forecast Doubles N.M. Rate to 54%

NEW YORK — We Americans already know how fat we are. Can it get much worse?

Apparently, yes, according to an advocacy group that predicts that by 2030 more than half the people in the vast majority of states will be obese.

Mississippi is expected to retain its crown as the fattest state in the nation for at least two more decades. The report predicts 67 percent of that state’s adults will be obese by 2030; that would be an astounding increase from Mississippi’s current 35 percent obesity rate.

The new projections were released Tuesday by Trust for America’s Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The two organizations regularly report on obesity to raise awareness, and they rely on government figures.

The group’s dismal forecast goes beyond the 42 percent national obesity level that federal health officials project by 2030. The group predicts every state would have rates above 44 percent by that time, although it didn’t calculate a national average.

New Mexico was in the middle of the pack at 32nd, with 54 percent predicted to be obese by 2030, compared to its current rate of 26 percent.

About two-thirds of Americans are overweight now. That includes those who are obese, a group that accounts for about 36 percent. Obesity rates have been holding steady in recent years. Obesity is defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or more, a measure of weight for height.

Trust for America’s Health officials said their projections are based in part on state-bystate surveys by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1999 through 2010. The phone surveys ask residents to self-report their height and weight; people aren’t always so accurate about that.

The researchers then looked at other national data tracking residents’ weight and measurements and made adjustments for how much people in each state might fudge the truth about their weight. They also tried to apply recent trends in obesity rates, along with other factors, to make the predictions.

Officials with Trust for America’s Health said they believe their projections are reasonable.

“If we don’t do anything, I think that’s a fair prediction,” said Dr. Thomas Farley, health commissioner in New York City, which just passed a regulation banning supersize sugary drinks to curb obesity.