State storms
But weather experts question that, saying data may be “noisy”
Insurance study finds uptick in number of tornadoes.
Is upstate New York becoming a new Tornado Alley?
The answer is no — but an insurance industry study has found an uptick in the number of twisters recorded in the state over the past two decades.
Others question if tornadoes have increased, saying it’s just that people are recording their existence due to better detection methods and the onset of social media, where every weather disturbance ends up on the internet.
Quote Wizard, an online insurance marketplace, found a nearly 36 percent increase in tornadoes in New York between the first and second decade of this century.
In other words, they listed 67 tornadoes between 2000 and 2009, compared with 91 between 2010 and 2019.
Those numbers are, to be sure, a fraction of the more than 2,000 tornadoes in Texas or almost 2,000 in Kansas during that time. But while
Texas actually saw a 10 percent drop, going from 1330 to 1196 over the two decades, New York was among the majority of states with an increase.
Overall, the survey found a nearly 11 percent increase nationwide between 2010 and 2019, with Wyoming, Kentucky and Pennsylvania posting the highest rises.
Analysts for the company also found that over the past decade, the center of tornadoes appeared to shift from the traditional Tornado Alley in the Great Plains region to the Southeast.
This doesn’t mean that upstate New Yorkers need to build tornado shelters, though.
“We’re not going to become Oklahoma or Kansas any time soon,” said Brian Tang, a University at Albany associate professor of atmospheric science.
Tang downplayed the shift illustrated by Quote Wizards, noting that the numbers for New York are small.
Moreover, there’s been a lot more awareness of tornadoes and other weather events over the past two decades due to better detection and the rise of social media, where every downed tree or torn-up rooftop can end up on the internet.
“Social media has been a huge factor,” said Tang.
Additionally, there are more “storm chasers,” or weather enthusiasts who investigate various weather phenomena.
That, he said, makes for “noisy” data in which the number of events like tornadoes in a place like New York can vary widely from year to year.
Tornadoes do have a certain fearful resonance in the Capital Region, with one famously tearing through Mechanicville and Stillwater in 1998, leaving extensive damage in its path.
In 1995, the Great Barrington, Mass., area also saw a powerful tornado that felled a lumber yard’s worth of trees. Another one hit Duanesburg in 2014.
Tornadoes have also been detected in Cranesville, near Amsterdam. And last August one touched down again in Stillwater and Schaghticoke in Rensselaer County.
The 1998 Mechanicvillestillwater tornado hit in May. May and June are peak time for tornadoes across upstate, said Tang.
That’s because during May and June, the jet stream, a band of west-to-east air currents several miles high, is moving north over New York. That movement means it’s those months when severe weather is most likely.
By July and August, the jet stream usually settles into the north, which means there is less wind shear, or sharp variation in wind speed over a given area.
With more wind shear in May and June, the likelihood of fierce storms is the highest.
“It’s always those last two weeks of May for some reason; if we are going to get something that’s the highest probability,” Tang said.