NEW POLL BOOST FOR LABOUR
ASIZABLE opinion poll of more than 2,000 people has given Labour a major boost ahead of next month’s Senedd election.
The latest survey by Opinium Research for Sky News forecasts that Labour is is on course to win back votes it lost in 2019’s General Election and match its total of 29 Senedd seats which it won in the 2016 Welsh election.
The rebound in Labour’s support comes after a series of polls had put the party on course for its worst-ever Welsh election result.
However, the poll has far less good news for Plaid Cymru which appears to be losing support (down 2%) and is on course to be the third largest party in the Senedd – with the Tories winning the second-highest number of votes and seats.
This is despite 28% of those quizzed saying they would vote for independence for Wales – one of the highest figures seen in a political poll.
The Opinium poll projects that Adam Price’s party would lose two seats, when compared to its 2016 performance. Adam Price also trailed in third place when people were asked who would make the best First Minister.
According to this polling, the Conservatives – who gained seats in the General Election in 2019 – would get a boost of eight seats compared to 2016’s Senedd election result.
The polling also found 11% of people who voted Conservative at the General Election two years ago would vote for Labour at this election.
While Labour would lose two constituency seats to the Conservatives, it would gain two regional seats from Plaid Cymru giving it 29 seats.
There is also a boost for Mark Drakeford. Of those asked, 29% said he would make the best First Minister. Andrew RT Davies was in second place with 10%.
In March, a YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, put Labour on course for its worst ever result – 22 seats.
That poll projected Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party to take four seats. The Opinium poll did not give people the specific option of Abolish the Assembly. People were offered the choice of Tory, Labour, Plaid, Lib Dem, Greens, Ukip, ‘Some other party,’ Wouldn’t vote and Don’t know.
THE Sky poll that shows Welsh Labour close to achieving a majority will increase the morale of the party’s workers as the Senedd election draws closer.
But it would be unwise to claim that such will definitely be the outcome.
Wales-specific opinion polls have been pretty sparse – the last one was a month ago – and they have produced contradictory results.
Part of the difficulty facing pollsters is that for the first time 16- and 17-year-olds are able to vote.
That makes it difficult to gauge how many of them will participate in the election, and what weight to give to their voting intentions.
In earlier polls, which saw Labour doing somewhat worse, there was something of a mismatch between the party’s relatively low level of support and the positive approval ratings for Mark Drakeford, whose cautious approach as First Minister to the relaxation of lockdown appears popular with those polled.
Welsh Labour has certainly put its leader at the centre of the campaign and it would be at odds if there was no correlation between his popularity and that of the party.
In the five previous elections to what was the National Assembly, Labour has not failed to be the leading party.
There is no polling evidence to suggest that this record will be broken on May 6.
Whether the party will be able to win an overall majority must, however, be in doubt.
That has never occurred previously, although on two occasions Labour has won exactly half of the 60 seats.
While outlandish surprises can’t be ruled out definitively, it seems the real interest in the election relates to the number of seats Welsh Labour will end up with. The more seats the party loses, the greater the chance of a formal coalition involving Labour and Plaid Cymru.
Paradoxically in such circumstances, with both Labour and Plaid in government they would between them be likely to have a considerable majority over the combined opposition, making it easier for their favoured legislation to be passed.
The other interesting element in this latest poll is that the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, which has had a lot of attention and will figure in the main BBC leaders’ debate, would not win a single seat.