Gaza: Biden’s push for peace
Eight months after Hamas “unleashed the dogs of war” with its murderous attacks of 7 October, Joe Biden gave a speech last week in which he argued, with “unusual clarity”, that it was time for the Israeli government to seek peace, said The Independent. An “indefinite war in pursuit of an undefined notion of total victory” is not in Israel’s interests, he said: it will not bring the hostages home; it will not lead to an “enduring defeat” of Hamas; and it will not bring “lasting security”. At the same time, Biden unveiled a peace plan he said had been proposed by Israeli negotiators. “Familiar in shape”, the deal starts with a six-week ceasefire – which would be extended if talks on a lasting peace were ongoing; a partial withdrawal from Gaza of Israeli forces; the return of some hostages; and a surge in aid. Biden said he had “urged” the Israeli leadership to “stand behind” the plan, arguing that Hamas no longer has the capacity to stage a repeat of 7 October. But within hours, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had distanced himself from it, saying that any plan that did not involve the destruction of Hamas militarily was a “non-starter”.
This was Biden’s “most decisive intervention” in the conflict to date, said Jasmine El-Gamal in Haaretz. And its timing, with a US election looming, and days after global outrage was stoked by the death of dozens of displaced Gazans in a fire that followed an Israeli air strike, was significant. Biden is a “friend of Israel”, but the war is becoming too heavy a burden for his presidency to bear. His support for it has enraged many US voters, and it is destroying his hopes for a “region-wide normalisation” to counter Iran. His speech was a gamble, however: if Hamas rejects the deal, Biden will have to stand by Israel. If Israel formally rejects it, he’ll face yet tougher decisions.
Netanyahu is facing a tough choice of his own, said Mark Almond in the Daily Mail: if he scorns Biden’s deal, he risks losing vital US support. If he accepts it, his far-right coalition partners may collapse his government – leaving him exposed to the corruption charges that have dogged him for years. The opposition leader, Yair Lapid, has offered a solution: he has said that if the PM accepts Biden’s deal, and the hardliners leave, he’ll prop up the coalition. But Netanyahu will be wary of how long Lapid’s support would last. Might it be long enough to allow Donald Trump, who has vowed unswerving support for Israel, to be returned to the White House? It seems the future of Biden’s ceasefire depends on the “survival calculations of one man”.