The World Cup of the underdog: why have the big teams failed?

After Germany lost their opening game to Mexico, their manager Joachim Löw declared: “I guarantee we will be in the knockout round.” But this, so far, has not been “a World Cup where anyone should be offering guarantees”, said Rory Smith in The New York Times. Germany, reigning champions and “permanent semi-finalists”, failed to reach the last 16. Portugal lost to Uruguay. Argentina bowed out after winning only a single game. And Spain lost to Russia (dubbed by former international Andrei Kanchelskis as “the worst Russian team I’ve ever seen”). So far, the tournament “has belonged not to soccer’s great aristocratic houses, but to its petite bourgeoisie”.

“The World Cup in the modern era is a mountain that any generation can climb only once, if it’s very lucky,” said Simon Kuper in the FT. Since 1962, no nation has won two in a row; defending champions tend to crash out early. A mixture of “age, hubris” and a reliance on tactics that worked in previous tournaments is usually responsible. Germany – like Spain – relied too much on the generation that had brought glory in the past.

“Possession football”, once so dominant, has also failed in this World Cup, said Alistair Tweedale in The Daily Telegraph. Spain, Argentina and Germany lost out despite managing possession of 65% or more. “Deep set defences” and fast counter-attacking have tended to fare better in Russia. So far, this is the “World Cup of the underdog”, said Miguel Delaney in The Independent. However, the eventual winners often only truly find themselves in the knockout stages; Brazil and France are starting to look convincing. The last three rounds may see “the big names go into overdrive”.