China’s ‘zero Covid’ policy ‘could be quietly adjusted after congress’

↑ Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a reception at the Great Hall of the People on the eve of China’s National Day in Beijing last month

The Chinese Zero Covid policy is likely to be "quietly adjusted" after the Chinese Communist Par t y Congress next week, a report has claimed.

T h i n k t a n k C e b r s a i d t h e p olicy – which has resulted in repeated major lockdowns in cities with any evidence of Covid and has seen the country’s borders essentially closed since 2020 – is hurting growth p r o s p e c t s , b u t i s l i k e l y t o remain in place until the 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has been completed.

However, it said China could then star t to relax rules, as has been seen in Hong Kong i n r e c e n t we e k s . H e l d e ve - r y f ive ye a r s , t h e C o n g r e s s , which starts on Sunday, aims to endorse leadership transitions; to approve changes to the party constitution and to deliberate on policy issues.

C h i n e s e p r e s i d e n t X i Ji n - ping is expected to be named as head of the party and military for a third term after rules were lifted in 2018 which prohibited anyone from holding office for more than two terms.

The Congress is likely to look at issues including increased tensions with the US, especially over Taiwan, which China c l a i ms a s i t s own t e r r i t o r y. Relations worsened following a trip by US house speaker Nancy Pelosi was the highest-ranking US official to visit the self-governing island in 25 years when she arrived in Taiwan in August.

It will also examine a report evaluating the Chinese Communist Party’s achievements over the last five years, while new members of the Politburo Standing Committee are also announced.

C e b r p o i n t e d t o a s u b t l e change in China-owned Hong Kong, where restrictions have been quietly lifted. Hotel quarantine for people arriving in H o n g K o n g w a s r e c e n t l y scrapped, with people expected to limit their movements in public at home for a few days instead.

Cebr said: “China’s twin current problems flow from the target of Zero Covid and the collapse of its soaring property markets. The Covid policy leads to frequent lockdowns disrupting production and of course ever yday life. As China is the last major economy to pursue a Zero Covid policy, the costs of trying to eradicate the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the virus in the population are especially jarring compared to other countries who have learned to live with the virus.

"H o w e v e r, m u c h p o l i t i - cal capital has been spent on sticking to this approach by the Chinese leadership and r e a l i s t i c a l l y, t he p ol i c y wil l n o t b e a d j u s t e d u n t i l a f t e r the 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, starting on 16 October, has been completed.” It added: “But it is interesting to note that in Chinese controlled Hong Kong, the policy has been quietly adjusted and Hong Kongers are now aiming to live with Covid, much in line with the West.”

I t p o i n t e d t o t h e f a c t t h a t Western companies are now licensing vaccines for use in C h i n a . The e f f e c t ive n e s s o f China’s own vaccine against Covid has been brought into question.

"T h i s m a k e s a ‘ W e s t - e r n s t y l e’ s t r a t e g y p o s s i b l e although it will cer tainly not be called that,” it said. “Hong Ko n g i s a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y a test bed.”