Stats predict a close local election fight

An election prediction website is showing that the Whitby and Scarborough constituency is going to be a much closer race than five years ago.

The Electoral Calculus website says there is a 64 per cent chance of the Conservatives holding on to the seat.

Labour is given a 31 per cent chance of success, with UKIP just 5 per cent.

The biggest shock is the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, who got 11,091 votes in 2010 but are now predicted fewer than 4,000 and given a zero per cent chance of gaining the seat.

The data does not break down’s UKIP’s share of the vote, putting the party in the category of ‘others’ which are predicted a combined total of 12,162.

The figures come from the Electoral Calculus organisation, which predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography. It has been making election predictions for 20 years, and was the most accurate

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Scarborough and Whitby

This table shows the (estimated) General Election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Scarborough and Whitby, as well as the predicted election results ward-by-ward. Please note that General Election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are the best estimates for these figures by Electoral Calculus, but are not official. pre-poll predictor at the last General Election in May 2010.

Whilst the data only predicts the General Election result it also attempts to guess which way each of the borough’s 25 wards will vote (two wards – Filey and Hertford – fall within the boundaries of the Thirsk and Malton constituency). If people vote for the same party locally as they do nationally then the Conservatives would top the vote in 15 of the wards, Labour would win nine with Filey being won by an ‘other’ party.

With 50 seats up for grabs it remains to be seen if people will vote along party lines for both elections. UKIP had a very strong showing locally in last year’s European Elections but later was unable to defend one of its seats in a borough council by-election.