Probyn: Three wins are a must for Eddie in November Tests
Confidence, a simple word defined as a feeling of self-assurance arising from an appreciation of one’s own abilities or qualities, but it means so much more. Not enough and you can struggle with whatever you attempted, too much and you can fail as a result of trying too much or too hard.
Confidence grows with success and with that a feeling of achievement and certainty. Confidence in sport is bought about by winning, which for an individual competing by themselves is an example of the dictionary definition – but for those competing in a team sport it is a different matter.
Teams can grow collectively with confidence through individual team members who are constantly fulfilling their role within the team, but can just as quickly be lost when somebody fails.
In rugby, the prime example is a goal kicker who can make or break a team’s expectations as he either succeeds or fails with every kick he takes.
In the modern game where penalties are given for virtually any misdemeanor and the ball and pitch have evolved technically to such an extent as to allow kickers to succeed from almost anywhere within 60-70 metres from the post, they are even more influential.
When you are in a team with the likes of Jonny Wilkinson or Owen Farrell as your kicker and everybody knows they have a kicking success ratio over the 80 per cent mark, you get a confidence boost every time a penalty is awarded to your side.
It’s the same for the backs when they know they have a good pack of forwards in front of them who can provide quick clean ball from all set pieces and phases of play while forcing errors and penalties from the opposition.
It is the ability of having the basics of the game and knowing that the other team members and coaches have confidence in you, even when things go wrong, that make a winning team.
When Geoff Cooke took over as England head coach in 1988 no one knew if he was any different to those who went before.
As a group of players who had come back from a disappointing first ever World Cup (England lost to Wales in the quarter-final), many thought there would be wholesale changes to the squad and team as usually happened whenever the England lost. For his first game in charge, Cooke made just three changes to the team to face a French side who were World Cup finalists: Will Carling, Mick Skinner and me.
Before the game it was expected that we would lose by a cricket score, but Cooke’s approach gave confidence to the players that at least they were being given a chance of redemption.
Sadly, we lost the game in the final minutes by 10-9 but Cooke picked the same team for our next game and said just because we lost doesn’t make us a bad team, it just needed a little time.
Over the next few years Cooke changed very few players, just tweaking the back line and recalling a more reliable goal kicker.
His confidence in his chosen squad gave the players a level of confidence in the system knowing they wouldn’t be dropped after just one game (making them a dreaded OCW – one cap wonder), allowing them to play with a confidence that led to back-to-back Grand Slams (which to this day still hasn’t been achieved by any England team since) and a World Cup final.
Currently it’s the All Blacks who are leading the way despite last week’s loss to South Africa in a game that showed the two sides of confidence. Dare I say that an over-confident All Blacks team failed to do the basics against a reasonably confident Springboks team whose confidence grew with every kick missed by All Black fly-half Beauden Barrett.
A combination of not taking the simple points and then trying to force scores with wide passes left the All Blacks with few options when they finally fell behind the South Africans.
Despite getting into a number of positions towards the end of the game where a drop-goal could have sealed victory, it was never attempted as Barrett continued in trying to find a try, perhaps being over confident in his ability to do so. It could also be that a lack of confidence is the reason Barrett didn’t try the drop-goal, as he has never dropped a goal in any of his 67 Tests and was therefore unsure of his ability to complete what is a basic skill.
That loss will make this Autumn’s internationals even more interesting as all the teams facing the All Blacks will have had their confidence boosted by South Africa’s unexpected win.
The loss will have dented New Zealand’s aura of invulnerability while focusing the minds of those that face South Africa this autumn in the knowledge that although they still have some way to go, the Boks are back.
For Eddie Jones, New Zealand are still the team to beat this autumn if he is to turn England’s fortunes around, but failing that, three out of four is a must if England are to start the World Cup year with the confidence that they can succeed.
“Three out of four wins is a must if England are to start the World Cup year with the confidence they can succeed”