Emissions target ‘beyond what is credible’ – report

The level of emissions reductions needed for Scotland to reach its 2030 climate change targets is now “beyond what is credible” to be achieved, independent experts have concluded.

A new report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said for Scotland to achieve the goal of cutting harmful emissions by 75% by then, the rate of emission reduction in most sectors would need to increase by a factor of nine in the years up to the end of the decade.

As a result, it said: “The acceleration required in emissions reduction to meet the 2030 target is now beyond what is credible.”

In a damning report to the Scottish Parliament, the CCC said: “The Scottish Government is failing to achieve Scotland’s ambitious climate goals.”

It noted annual targets for reducing emissions had “repeatedly been missed”, with a rise in emissions in 2021 – linked to colder than average weather that year and an increase in transport emissions post Covid – the eighth time in 12 years targets had not been achieved.

The CCC also noted the publication of Scotland’s new draft Climate Change Plan, which was due late in 2023, had been “delayed”.

As such, it said there was “no comprehensive delivery strategy for meeting future emissions targets”.

Calling on ministers to publish this “urgently”, the CCC insisted that “actions continue to fall far short of what is legally required”.

In its 2023 report, the independent body stated that “most key indicators of delivery progress are off track”, adding this was “significantly so” for tree planting and peatland restoration rates, heat pump installations, electric van sales and recycling rates.

It said: “By the end of this decade, Scotland will need to: treble the pace of rollout of public electric vehicle charge points, reduce car traffic by 20%, increase heat pump installation rates by a factor of at least thirteen and double onshore wind capacity.”

The CCC said sales of electric cars and vans were lower than in the UK as a whole – with only 2% of new vans sold in 2022 being electric models.

The report also said there was “no strategy for decarbonising aviation in Scotland”, with a plan “still needed” for how to meet the commitment for 30% of Scottish Government-managed ferries to be low-emission by 2032.

Turning to buildings, the CCC said just in excess of 6,000 domestic heat pumps were installed in Scotland in 2023 – saying this “needs to increase to more than 80,000 per year by the end of the decade”.

On recycling, ministers were told “Scotland is significantly off track to meet its 2025 70% recycling rate target, with no progress in rates over the last 10 years”.

However, the report said there had been “some progress in delivering renewable electricity generation in Scotland”, with the CCC saying that while the Scottish Government was on track to meet its targets for offshore wind capacity in 2030, it was “slightly off track” for the target for onshore wind for this year.

Environmental campaigners also demanded action from ministers, with Friends of the Earth Scotland head of campaigns Imogen Dow saying: “The Scottish Government has repeatedly failed to implement the changes needed since the introduction of the climate targets over a decade ago.

“This is an embarrassing and abject failure of politicians to deliver on their legal commitments to the Scottish people.”

The Scottish Government was contacted for comment.