SNP voters want Swinney as First Minister, poll finds
... but Forbes is the choice among the public
JOHN Swinney is the preferred choice to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister among SNP voters, but the public back Kate Forbes in the role, according to the latest polling – and both are seen as better picks than Anas Sarwar or Douglas Ross.
Forbes has a six-point lead over the former deputy first minister in new Ipsos polling of the Scottish public on potential successors.
However, among 2021 SNP voters, Swinney remains the top choice for the role with 30% – compared to 21% for Forbes and 14% for SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.
Meanwhile, when the wider public were asked who would make the best first minister, 26% backed Forbes, compared to 20% for Swinney and 14% for Flynn.
When ranking who would do a good job as first minister, Forbes and Swinney both came out ahead of Scottish Labour leader Sarwar. Only 31% felt he would do a good job against 37% for each of the SNP contenders.
The picture was even worse for Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross with more than half (52%) saying he would do a bad job, compared to 16% thinking he would do well in the role.
Emily Gray, managing director of
Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP will be looking to select a leader who can unite the party, secure co-operation from opposition parties so that laws and budgets can be passed, and reverse the party’s slide in the polls.
“While Swinney may be better placed than Forbes to address the first two of those, on the third point the evidence suggests that Forbes may currently have wider appeal among the electorate than Swinney does.”
The research – conducted across Monday and yesterday with a sample of 1127 adults in Scotland – also found that 60% of SNP voters believe ending the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens was the wrong move, compared to just 45% of the wider public.
On Scottish independence, half of the public believe Yousaf’s resignation will make no difference, while one in 10 expect a positive impact, and one-third a negative impact.
Ipsos pointed to the figures when Nicola Sturgeon resigned for comparison, with its polling then finding that 54% felt her decision would hurt the case for Scottish independence.
The poll emerged after Health Secretary Neil Gray became the latest senior SNP figure to back Swinney to succeed Yousaf.
The former deputy first minister said on Monday he is giving “active consideration” to the possibility of succeeding the current first minister but has yet to officially put his name forward.
Lorna Finn, the party’s national secretary, took to X/Twitter on Monday night to confirm nominations in the race were now open.
Writing on the social media platform yesterday, Gray said: “Yesterday was a sad day, but today we must move forward. I believe Scotland now needs stability, experience and diplomacy to lead us forward.
“I hope @JohnSwinney will stand to be the next @theSNP leader and First Minister of Scotland as he brings all those qualities and more.”
Some bookmakers had put Neil Gray as among the favourites to replace Yousaf, although this now seems to have been ruled out given his backing for Swinney.
Westminster SNP leader Flynn, his predecessor Ian Blackford and the party’s depute leader Keith Brown had already given their support to Swinney. Energy Secretary Mairi McAllan said that she was “very pleased” to hear Swinney was giving consideration to becoming Scotland’s next first minister.
Meanwhile, MSP Fergus Ewing has backed former finance secretary Forbes to go for the role.
Following Yousaf’s