Top brass: We're too broke to go on beat
POLICE chiefs have given a stark warning to Ministers that the next wave of massive spending cuts poses a ‘considerable risk to national security’, it can be revealed.
In a confidential top-level report written by senior officers and seen by The Mail on Sunday, a chilling picture emerges of a depleted emergency service, with forces unable to cope with riots, crime rates surging and local patrols a thing of the past.
The country’s top police chiefs held a secret summit this month to discuss the impact when billions more pounds are slashed from their budgets under Government austerity measures, forcing them to lose thousands more frontline officers.
Their report has been delivered to Home Secretary Theresa May and top civil servants as Chancellor George Osborne prepares to tell Whitehall the size of the savings it must make over the next four years.
The police chiefs warn that cutting central grants to forces by more than a quarter by 2020 will mean:
The traditional bobby on the beat and patrol car ‘disappear completely’ in some areas, leaving officers just responding to emergencies.
Without ‘eyes and ears’ in communities, police are left unable to gather intelligence on criminals and terrorists – with ‘big implications for national security’.
Crime levels ‘rise more signif- icantly’ as local prevention work is axed.
Far fewer officers can be mobilised to tackle national crises, such as riots.
There will be a ‘fundamental change’ in policing, with officers unable to act as ‘society’s safety net’ by attending accidents, looking for missing people and preventing suicides.
Some forces go bust as they strug- gle to get rid of enough officers, without the ability to sack them.
Sara Thornton, head of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, told the Home Office: ‘Chief constables are extremely concerned about the impact of the forthcoming spending review. They are extremely concerned that the scale of cuts, coupled with changes to the way grant is distributed, will fundamentally change policing in this country.
We hope that the spending review will be realistic about the level of further cuts that the police can absorb without it impacting negatively on the safety and security that our citizens enjoy.’
The 43 forces in England and Wales lost £2.3billion – a quarter of their central grants – over the past five years, forcing them to lose 16,916 officers and 20,441 staff and community support officers. Police strength stood at 126,818 officers in March.
But as the Government insists public spending must be cut further, while the health, education and overseas aid budgets are protected, chief constables have been bracing themselves for an even bigger hit.
The results of the spending review to be announced by the Chancellor on November 25 will probably mean cuts of either 25 per cent or 40 per cent in the Government grant to forces over the next four years.
At the same time, the Home Office is changing the way it distributes the cash, which could mean rural forces getting more and big cities having to make do with less.
To consider the threat, there was a ‘specially convened meeting’ of chief constables in London on September 7, attended by Ms Thornton as well as Britain’s top policeman, Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe. They dis- cussed the cuts they have already had to impose in the face of rising crime, the complex issues they face such as child abuse, online offences and fraud, and the increased demands from struggling social services and NHS bodies.
They also examined where the axe might fall to see how they could implement the next round of cuts without further increases in crime. They agreed a 16-page document and rushed it to the Home Office and Treasury Permanent Secretary Sir Nicholas Macpherson.
They say that 25 to 40 per cent cuts will put ‘the cherished and effective model of policing at risk’. And they warn: ‘We are genuinely concerned that a number of forces may fail as they face even deeper cuts.’
Because almost all of police budgets go on salaries, the police chiefs say they are ‘deeply concerned’ there will have to be a four-year nationwide recruitment freeze. The report admits: ‘At the extreme end of the spectrum there is considerable, albeit reluctant, support for compulsory redundancy to be available to manage significant cuts.’ By getting rid of local officers, the cuts would ‘take the police back to a response based service’ that would spell the end of ‘proactive neighbourhood policing work that the public value and has helped to keep crime down in recent years’. Currently, police are the service of last resort – ‘especially after 5pm on Friday when most other agencies close for the weekend’ – but if they no longer have enough officers to respond to traffic accidents, missing people or suicide threats, it will ‘pass on considerable cost to other agencies’ and mean ‘some of the most vulnerable in our society are not protected as society expects’.
Separate ‘Silver’ and ‘Gold’ groups comprising chief officers, crime tsars, watchdogs and Home Office officials have also been discussing how the axe might fall.
Documents from one of these groups obtained by this newspaper show that 40 per cent cuts would mean police losing another £2.283billion by 2020. Even the more likely 25 per cent cuts would be ‘broadly equivalent to the loss of over 40,000 posts’, mostly officers, taking police strength below 100,000 for the first time since the early 1970s.
‘The biggest challenge would be whether an effective policing service could be delivered with an officer establishment of 70,000 to 80,000 posts,’ a Silver Group document stated.
It identified several areas around the country where crucial police activity is at risk. In Lincolnshire, there could be ‘dramatic changes’ such as the end of ‘proactive patrol’ and the scrapping of all Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs).
By 2017-18 the entire force could be ‘unsustainable’, although it may be saved by funding changes that favour rural areas.
In Lancashire, ‘surveillance capacity is at risk’ as is the local Serious and Organised Crime Unit. The Metropolitan Police in London may have to double its response time for nonemergencies to two hours and is likely to lose 1,000 PCSOs.
Other forces such as Leicestershire are overhauling the way they handle 999 and 111 calls so more are dealt with solely on the phone or by officers booking an appointment to see crime victims, rather than providing an immediate response. Many forces, including West Midlands, are losing so many officers, particularly in specialist roles, that they will be ‘unable to meet mutual aid obligations’ – meaning they cannot provide reserve strength to other areas dealing with riots, terrorist attacks, manhunts or large public events.
The stark warnings about the threat of further job cuts and deterioration in the service will alarm rank-and-file leaders gathering at Edinburgh today for the annual National Police Memorial Day.
Steve White, chairman of the Police Federation, said: ‘The Government is failing to listen and recognise that the threats have never been so great. Compulsory severance – which is just a fancy way of sacking officers and making them redundant – means the very independence of officers will be under threat. The Government has no idea about the very real impact their illthought-out plans will have.’
Mike Penning, Minister for Policing, Crime, Criminal Justice and Victims, said: ‘There is no question that the police still have the resources to do their important work. What matters is how officers and staff are deployed, not how many of them there are in total.’
Jack Dromey, Shadow Policing Minister, said: ‘We urge Theresa May to look at the evidence, listen to what police forces across the country are telling her and reconsider her reckless proposals.’
‘Officers seen only as they whizz by in cars’