Only certainty in Kherson is that bloodier days lie ahead
THE secretly distributed flyers and posters that have been appearing on the city’s walls warn of what’s to come.
Written in Russian and depicting the image of a rocket launcher, they have been showing up since March when the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson was captured by Russian forces.
“Occupier, leave now – or this Himars will help you,” reads one, a reference to the high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) supplied to the Ukrainian military by the United States.
These weapons have become something of a battlefield gamechanger for the Ukrainians, enabling them to strike at targets further afield and making Himars a symbol of Russian vulnerability.
And nowhere are Kyiv’s forces more determined to exploit that vulnerability than in Kherson which is set to become the epicentre of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It’s hard to overestimate the significance the retaking of Kherson would have on this conflict which is now in its sixth month. Should Ukraine succeed, it would be a devastating blow to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s’ ambitions to control southern Ukraine, particularity those vital ports along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Putin’s aim has always been to link these up with Crimea, which has been annexed and occupied by Russia since 2014.
For some time now, the Ukrainians have been setting the stage for a broad counteroffensive and the tactical deployment of the Himars have left thousands of Russian soldiers, mainly from Russia’s 49th Army and stationed west of the Dnipro River around Kherson, in a precarious position.
Those Russian troops are largely cut off from strongholds held by other units to the east, a situation made worse by Himars strikes last week that saw the key Antonovsky bridge across the Dnipro and other critical routes made almost impassable.
Just to ram home the precariousness of the Russian forces’ position, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted: “Occupiers should learn how to swim across the Dnipro river. Or should leave Kherson while it is still possible. There may not be a third warning.”
Retake the city?
PRESIDENT Zelenskyy is more than aware of the strategic opportunity this moment brings, insisting that he wants to retake Kherson by September. But just how realistic a prospect is such a victory and what challenges lie ahead for Ukrainian forces?
On the positive side so far, Ukraine has liberated 44 villages and towns in the Kherson oblast in a clear demonstration that the weapons supplied by the West have had an impact. But while the Himars have undoubtedly made their mark, Ukrainian forces are firing so many of the missiles daily that there are questions over the capacity to resupply fast enough.
As Kyiv calls for more weapons, the US appears to be struggling to keep the flow of ammunition coming.
Fully aware of such possible deficiencies, Ukrainian officials have been keeping the pressure on their Western allies for support.
“Just give them weapons and let them work,” Natalya Gumenyuk, the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern military command and Kherson offensive, was quoted by The New York Times as saying.
The issue of weapons and ammunition supplies aside, there is also the question of manpower as any full-on Ukrainian counterattack would require a huge number of troops in what would be difficult urban fighting.
Russia, too, of course, is preparing its own response having dug in around Kherson and said to be conducting a “massive redeployment of forces from Ukraine’s east to the south, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych.
How all of this plays out in the coming days and weeks will very much depend on how quickly Russia reinforces its forces in and around the city.
For the moment, around Kherson at least, Russia’s southern strategy of converting areas it holds into pro-Russian towns, deporting pro-Ukraine populations and introducing Russian administration and governance will have to take a back seat.
Moscow’s priority now will be stopping what would be a major boost for Kyiv should it retake the city.
If there’s one sure thing about Kherson, it’s that the days ahead will be even bloodier, for so much is at stake here in determining the future direction and outcome of this war.