Pressure on NHS remains as male fans ‘linked’ to rise in Covid cases
CORONAVIRUS could continue to put “huge pressure” on the NHS, Nicola Sturgeon has warned after Scotland recorded the highest-ever daily total of new cases and the most deaths since April.
A Covid cases gender gap has also opened up as the total number testing positive in the past 24 hours hit nearly 3,000 in a move that is being partially blamed on Euro 2020.
Yesterday, five new deaths were reported, and 2,969 cases recorded – the highest daily number since the start of mass testing.
In recent days about two-thirds of cases in the 15 to 44 age range have been male.
Behaviour expert Professor Stephen Reicher has suggested that men meeting up to watch Euro 2020 is behind the rise.
National clinical director Professor Jason Leitch said he believed indoor socialising was the main factor, though not necessarily linked to football.
Public health expert Professor Linda Bauld said it was too early to link the spike in male cases to one particular activity – but she said the trend was “striking” and should be investigated further.
Yesterday’s figures show 2,969 new cases were recorded in the past 24 hours – higher than the 2,649 cases in one day at the height of the winter peak.
The test positivity rate is 7.3 per cent, with a record 42,310 tests taking place.
This is down from 9.1% the previous day but still above the 5% World Health Organisation figure that suggests a pandemic is under control.
Ms Sturgeon said if Covid-19 restrictions are to end on August 9 as planned, “we should take this increase seriously”.
She stressed that vaccines are breaking the link between illness and death, and “around 5% of cases are admitted to hospital now”.
But she cautioned that “5% of a large number of cases will still put huge pressure on the NHS and cause suffering and loss”.
The First Minister added: “We are much more confident about the medium term, due to vaccines, but what we do in short term will determine how safely we get there.
“So, even though we’re all fed up and frustrated if we see others breaking rules, its still important to take this seriously.”
Data from Public Health Scotland shows that throughout the pandemic as a whole there have been no dramatic differences between the sexes in infection rates, but this appears to have changed in recent days.
The current wave of Covid-19, linked to the Delta variant first identified in India, is spreading mainly among under-45s, with older age groups accounting for a relatively small number of new infections.
Among children under the age of 15, the gender balance in cases continues to be fairly even.
However, a widening gender gap is particularly evident in recent days among people aged between 20 and 24. In the latest figures, males made up more than three-quarters of people testing positive in that age group.
Professor Leitch said he did not not believe football was directly to blame, but he did express concerns about large gatherings of football fans.
He said about one-third of people recently infected had been in some type of hospitality venue, while another third had been in some kind of retail premises.
He added: “As soon as you bring people together the virus moves.”
Asked specifically about case rates among young men, he said: “It’s socialising. It’s mainly indoor socialising, not outdoor socialising.”
Professor Leitch said there would be patterns in behaviour over time, leading to “lumps and bumps along the way”, and warned that dates given for further lockdown easing were dependent on people acting responsibly.
Professor Bauld, from the University of Edinburgh, said she “would not rush” to blame the increase on any particular activity without more evidence,.
She said: “Males are more likely to take risks and as the environment changes they may be more willing to engage in behaviours that maybe women are a little bit less likely to, or maybe a little bit more cautious – or maybe have fewer opportunities to.
“So we just don’t know – but it looks like a trend to me and it definitely needs investigated.”