Misjudgment may prove fatal for PM

WHEN Theresa May confidently called a general election in April, her party’s lead over Labour in the polls was around 17 per cent. The Prime Minister said she was calling the election because she wanted a strong hand in the Brexit talks, but she was also calling it because of that seemingly commanding lead over Labour. And yet here we are, just a few weeks later, with the Tory lead in the polls down perhaps to one percentage point. A sure thing has turned into a dangerous gamble.

The details of the latest poll, by Survation, are quite remarkable. When asked about their intentions at the beginning of May, 47 per cent of the voters questioned by the pollsters said they would vote Conservative and 30 per cent said Labour. Now the latest poll shows that 41.5 per cent say they would vote Conservative compared to

40.4 per cent for Labour.

Naturally, we should approach all polls with caution, particularly as the polling before the 2015 General Election predicted a hung parliament and the Tories went on to win. But even so, the polls are clearly tapping into a change in mood that could yet prove fatal for the Prime Minister.

The problem for the Tories has been the tone and content of the campaign, particularly the policy on social care, but also Mrs May herself. She was in Edinburgh on Monday to campaign but appeared to have learned no lessons – instead of getting out and about, she appeared to be holed up in a warehouse with chosen supporters. That style of campaigning, combined with her refusal to join the leaders’ TV debate and her loyalty to catchphrases such as “strong and stable” long after they have lost any meaning, have seriously undermined her support.

The most recent terror attacks have also deepened Mrs May’s problems. Her stated intention to impose more controls on online material is logical, particularly as freedom of expression has always been qualified, but there is a lack of detail in the rest of her response – “enough is enough” sounds good but what does it mean? Mrs May should also remember the example of Tony Blair who said after the July 7 attacks that the rules of the game had changed only for his anti-terror measures to run aground in parliament and the courts.

Mrs May’s record on policing – in particular her cuts to the budget of the Metropolitan Police – has also played into Labour’s hands, with London’s mayor Sadiq Khan saying the city is not receiving the level of funding it needs. Jeremy Corbyn’s response, on the other hand, has been less sure, first calling on Mrs May to resign and then appearing to backtrack. And what is the point of calling on Mrs May to resign just days before the electorate will decide her future anyway?

The focus instead should be on security, intelligence and forming an effective response to the London attacks. The action of the emergency services on the ground seems to have been effective, but it is troubling that one of the attackers appears to have been reported to the police for extremism. Labour and the Conservatives may be squabbling over whether the Prime Minister should resign but the real debate is about what we need to do to make the country more secure.