We must look beyond the short term and consider who can best embrace change

THOSE involved on both sides of the referendum debate would be wise to heed the words of the long-deceased Nobel prizewinner Niels Bohr that “prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”, and not spend too much time arguing the future prospects of Scotland – whether down or up – in terms of the circumstances as they exist today.

Since the original devolution debates the development of Scotland has taken place over a period characterised by huge steps forward in technologies, non-existent at that time, that have had a profound impact on our businesses and people. Laptops (and now tablets), mobile phones and social media, the internet, solar and wind-generated power, automation, and developments in healthcare are only some of the more obvious innovations which have impacted on our lives.

More recently the political and financial environments within which our country operates have changed out of all recognition. Many of the past certainties that have determined public policy and expenditure have had to be rethought.

Change has happened quickly and unpredictably, shown for example through the impact of the nearcollapse of the banking system, rapid fluctuations (generally upwards) in commodity prices, and dramatic reductions in public expenditure on both economies and economic growth. Even changes which are more predictable are characterised by uncertainty. We know climate change is happening –but are not sure how fast. We know oil is running out – but we don’t know when. We cannot therefore predict our future based only on what we know today.

The one certainty is that the pace of change will increase. The period to 2050 seems likely to continue to overturn many established global

THE MARCH OF PROGRESS: Apple CEO Tim Cook at the launch of the iPhone 6 patterns. Scientific insight will develop new technologies with enormous power which are currently little or only partially understood – indeed even technologies which do not yet exist. Developments in food technology, healthcare, energy and resource management, and the impact of longer term research under way into cloning and artificial intelligence

in Cupertino, California, earlier this week. will eventually have a huge impact on, and create unprecedented challenges and opportunities. And new business and service models will emerge. The uses of social media, for example, is already radically changing the way in which citizens engage with each other, and with government; and the potential opportunities it opens up for new forms of business development is already generating a new wave of entrepreneurs, new businesses and new business formats.

Many countries are neither anticipating nor organised to deal with the challenges they pose, let alone the opportunities which they might unlock. The further we look into the future the greater these uncertainties become. These major global challenges will have a profound, and in many ways unpredictable, impact on the look and feel of our country and the prospects of people and businesses who either live or are based here. Equally there are things which are more predictable – and more amenable to local control and influence. We know for example that our populations will become older and will live longer, that learning will become more important as the key to unlocking opportunities for individuals, that knowledge, skills and connectivity will increasingly be the drivers for economic success, and that sustainability and quality of life will rise up the agenda.

While major global challenges will be addressed by international and national legislatures, the way in which they impact more locally will be determined in part by how aware – and how organised – we are to manage change.

The successful countries will be those which look beyond the short term and focus on the long game. We can therefore have Better Together with its lack of any recognition of what forces are at play, what this might mean for our future, and with no positive vision whatsoever, or Yes, with its focus on developing a high skills, high productivity, socially just economy which will create opportunities for all. I know where my vote is going. Dr Steve Inch, 72 Stirling Drive, Bishopbriggs. ANYONE tempted by a one-night stand with nationalism should think long and hard.

We are all going to be left holding the baby. Dr Bruce Halliday, Stormont, Dalbeattie Road, Dumfries.